Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Up, down, happy frown

The rest of the market went up today. My porftolio stayed down. Apple down. Crocs barely up. Nintendo neutral. My tidbits of Under Armor (down slightly) and Baidu (up) don't affect the sum much. I'm waiting for a chance to get my A grade stock picks at a reasonable price, but it just ain't happening. Time to do a little studying.

Amazon 86. The stock jumped 3.5% today, keeping the AMZN rally alive and well. After looking dead in the 70s for such a long time, it's nice to see longs on the winning side of this growth story. Chinese are astute shoppers, at least the ones i know, and I have great optimism for the Co's growth in China. At this price, though, the stock is far above its 13-, 50- and 200-day moving averages (exponential and simple). Pupule says: Wait.

Apple 135. Low volume today as profit-takers overtook the stock on a -0.89% day. You know, the stock moved up yesterday from 131 to 138 on the announcement of the one-millionth iPhone sold. No other real reason or catalyst. That's life with Apple. At 135, AAPL is touching its 13-day MA, which makes it interesting. Do as I say, not as I did (bought at 135 and 144). Pupule says: Buy small, if at all.

Crocs 57. The stock is trading at 23 times next year's earnings. Compare that to Under Armor, which trades at 50 times. The only reason, and this is my gut feeling, that CROX isn't above 60 is that there is extreme enthusiasm for the Co's great fundamentals and growth on one hand, and extreme pessimism and hatred of the products on the other. Practically every day there's blogger or columnist who scribes his immense hatred of the poofy, hole-ridden Cayman sandals. Never mind the Co's robust future. Just blind hatred. That's why it's taking Crocs more time to ride up than it really should. Power to the patient. The stock is trading at its 13-day MA. Pupule says: Buy small.

Garmin 106. One of my fantasies is buy all the Garmin shares I possibly can, stuff them into a white pillowcase, fall asleep, and then wake up with an extra pillowcase filled with cool Garmin GPS stuff and hard cash. The stock jumped 2.4% today. I keep waiting for a bargain, but the stock drifts above its 13-day MA. Pupule says: Keep waiting.

Research in Motion 83. For a moment (yesterday), RIMM traded at its 13-day moving averages. Today, up nearly 1% and above the MA again. Pupule says: Wait.

Baidu 227. August 16. BIDU traded at 161, below its 13- and 50-day MA. It took the stock just three sessions to explode over both averages. It hasn't touched them since. Today's 4.1% run doesn't help. Can't say I'm surprised. As the U.S. economy slows, more and more investors and traders will look to China as a safe haven. Sorta safe. Pupule says: Wait, wait, wait.

Blue Nile 80. I picked up a few shares of the world's favorite online jewelry company today. I had a buy order on Friday at $75.50, but I pulled it when there were some complications in my trading account. Well, I regret it now. And yet, at 80, NILE is trading at its 13-day MA (and above the 50-day averages). All that insider selling kept the stock half buried for the past week. Funny how you can find jewels by digging a little. Pupule says: Buy small.

Chipotle Mexican Grill 103. My job took me to a press conference at a new place in Waikiki called Senor Frog's yesterday. I wasn't planning to stay afterward, but the food was free, the company was good, and man, it was worth it. Senor Frog's has only two U.S. locations, with plans to open another in Las Vegas. Other locations include Cancun. There's a pattern here, isn't there? If CMG is as good as Senor Frog's, I might be a believer. From what I know, CMG is more of a fast-food style than Senor Frog's, making fast, fresh Mexican food better than anyone. Anyway, CMG the stock was below its 13-day averages yesterday. Today, with the 3% bump up, the stock is above the MA. Pupule says: Wait.

CNOOC Ltd. 127. This stock is all over creation, goofier than a penny stock if you look at the chart. I still lament the major discount of a month ago, when CEO traded as low as 92 — below its 200-day MA. At 127 (up 2.8% today), it is way too expensive. Pupule says: Wait.

Flowserve 70. Up 1.9% today, now touching its 50-day MA. This stock has struggled and struggled for respect. Though its fundamentals and growth numbers are as good as most of my A- picks, the stock has closed above its 13-day MA only once since August 8. Pupule says: Strong buy.

Google 521. Another stock that can't get the motor started for long. Up 1.3% today, still trading within its 13-day MA. Will Google lose in China? That question should be banned. Pupule says: Buy.

Nintendo 57. In a rut for two whole months now. Why? Weak dollar. Strong yen. The stock doubled between November and June. Blah blah blah. Try out the Wii. This baby will sell like hotcakes, pancakes, wedding cakes, cake with coconut frosting, fudge syrup and a cherry on top, to boot. The DS is addicting. It is a legal drug that, unlike the Wii, can be carried near and far. I still think The Sims™ is coming to the Wii sooner than later. The stock is at its 13-day MA, the Co said last month that expanded production is not possible (yeth, that sucketh, I know), and the Co still won't allow the shares in Tokyo to be sold in regular increments. A minimum buy of Nintendo stock on the Tokyo Stock Exchange is 100 shares, or $41,000. Oh well. Pupule says: Buy small.

Potash 89. Up 2.1% today. Damn, did anyone really know that a fertilizer stock would be ballistic like this? This is a pre-split 267. Holy crapoli. At this price, the stock is above its MA. Pupule says: Wait.

Under Armor 62. Down a skosh (-0.37%) today. With a forward P/E of 50, seems like nobody is willing to fork up for the expensive price of the stock. UA is trading below its 13-day MA now, trending toward its 50-day MA. Of all the A- picks, I'm least bullish on UA, which has a history of hit-and-miss execution on earnings. Seems like a logical buyout for Nike. How about a merger with Crocs and their secret-recipe sensation Croslite? That would give Nike a serious run for its money. Pupule says: Buy.

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