Thursday, December 6, 2007

Which of these 3 is not like the other?

Well, even on Sesame Street, it's easy to see "Which of these three is not like the other? Come on, can you tell which one?" Between Apple, Google and Research in Motion, price action speaks volumes, no pun intended. Apple and Google gapped up nicely yesterday, while Research in Motion continued to flounder, losing all of its early gains to the disdain of longs. That would include me.

Apple moved up on stronger volume, while Google increased with stagnant volume. RIMM, however, continues to flounder, and the increased volume of the past three sessions concerns me. Nicolas Darvas paid extreme attention to price action, and he would have bailed out of RIMM many points ago, I believe. He often wrote that odd fluctuations (I'm paraphrasing) were clear signals of danger. By getting out on set stop-loss targets, he often avoided what turned out to be tumultuous events for these erratic stocks. The catastrophies were sometimes predictable, he wrote, by reading the price action.

Apple got an upgrade this morning. The climb back to the all-time high (193) continues. Which of these three is not like the other? Take a wild guess.

Apple




















Google




















Research in Motion




















I certainly don't think RIMM is en route to a disaster. Costs are under control, direct competition is still distant — the iPhone and BlackBerry appeal to different demographics — and growth is imminent. As an Apple long, I think the "Cool Factor" of an iPhone reigns, but there's nothing quite like the CrackBerry, and China's appetite for All Things Cellphone will devour the product en masse.

No comments: