Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Always in 3's

Whether we believe it or not, the market has shown a propensity to completely go koo-koo when there are three or more global crises simultaneously peaking. This time around, we have:

1. Eurozone credit crisis, arrow now on Spain
2. Deepening environmental and Gulf economic crisis, re: Deepwater Horizon oil disaster
3. North Korea threat of war

Of the three, North Korea could be the most dangerous, yet the one that could be curtailed most quickly. China has been NK's best trading partner; if not for the People's Republic, NK would have likely fallen apart the past few years.

Where China will stand as the US and UN bear down on Kim Il Jong and the constant threats — and 46 dead South Korean sailors — will be quite interesting to see. In any event, these three issues have combined to send futures plummeting. VXX has traded at 36.70 already in premarket (the one I can't trade until 8 am Eastern) and is now at 35.95 (+2.83 +8.54%). FAZ is also up (17.48 +1.14 +6.98%). I backed away from a buy in afterhours yesterday at 16.25 or so.

With yesterday's selloff following Friday's bounce, today isn't looking rosy for bulls. Not at all. But that's sometimes when the market swallows all these nasty pills, barfs it all out and makes a surprising change of direction. I don't see it today, but caution is advised.

No comments: