Monday, May 24, 2010

Spanish fly? To Euro or not to Euro


To short the Euro, that is. While gold (GLD) sold off a bit recently and bounced today — consolidation and nothing more — the Euro showed weakness today and renewed concerns, fears and panic among those long FXE.

EWP (iShares MSCI Spain) also took a hit, as did STD (Banco Santander), as I wrote earlier.

The winners today were DRR (Market Vectors Double Short Euro), EUO (ProShares UltraShort Euro) and DPK (Direxion Developed Markets Bear 3x). I'd never heard of DPK, but it fits nicely in this environment. Europe won't be down forever, but for now, it's a slow, painful process.

Maybe this is the bottom for the Euro and Spain. After all, it was the government of Spain that took action over the weekend. Yet, the numbers are massively bearish, particularly unemployment. Spain and Euro-related stocks, ETFs and ETNs have been on a roller coaster, and it gets steeper before it flattens out.

EWP is lightly traded (235k shares today), but made a nice comeback at the close, unlike most Eurozone and Euro-related titles today.

EWP vs. EUO, DPK, DRR
1 day (5-minute bars)
EWP vs. EUO, DPK, DRR
10-day (15-minute bars)
EWP vs. EUO, DPK, DRR
1 year (daily)
EWP vs. EUO, DPK, DRR
2 year (weekly)
Not so long ago — Dec 2008 — Spain had a very potent top


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