Monday, May 31, 2010

No denying the bear in me

I'm not historically a bear, not by any stretch. But last week, I really confounded myself by going long VXX without using it as a hedge. That didn't work well at all. The following morning, China denied being bearish on Euro debt and pledged its enduring love and support of all things Euro.

Yeah, right. Today, right on cue (after I sold my VXX shares), the Chinese are voicing their concerns (again) and the markets are struggling, the futures are down, and I'm wondering how I can learn not just to be right, but to be right at the correct time. I sold those VXX shares at a nasty percentage loss, though the position was too small to put a real dent in my account.

About the Chinese — it's not just the Euro they're worried about. People's Bank of China advisor Li Daokui says the housing bubble surpasses the one the US had in 2008-09.

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