Friday, May 28, 2010

Flat Friday: Remember the TItans

Dow Jones 10,136.63 -123.36 -1.19%
NASDAQ 2,257.04 -20.64 -0.91%
S&P 500 1,089.41 -13.65 -1.24%

Memorial Day weekend is upon us, always the right time to remember the men and women who have served our nation with honor and fulfilled their legacies as proud Americans — and courageous men and women who aided Uncle Sam in times of distress.

Market fell in the final minutes as traders locked in profits, shorts covered and many in general were risk adverse. A lot can happen over three days. I don't blame anyone taking risk off the table. DJ was down just 50 points in the final half-hour before succumbing to the late selloff. Thin volume turns the market into a waterfall when momentum shifts.

• AAPL (257.19 +3.84 +1.52) rallied toward its intraday high near the close, but ultimately sold back down. Momentum is on Apple's side with the new iPhone close to being announced, iPad sales soaring and stores (at least the one in Honolulu) jam-packed while the rest of the mall is usually so-so drawing crowds. I wanted a drop to 253 by the close to pick up a few shares. Might get that opportunity next week, but if it doesn't happen by Tuesday, the hype for the iPhone G4 and WWDC (June 7) will likely fuel a near-term run.

• BIDU (73.25 -0.24 -0.34%) held its ground fairly well. Nasdaq was down 8% for May, according to CNBC, but BIDU rose 6.3%. I like Baidu long term, but missed my chance to re-enter at 69 early Thursday.

• C (3.96 -0.06 -1.49%) lost most of its gains from Thursday. The Ackman buy (1.5 million shares) and upgrade news are priced in now, and it couldn't hold 4 bucks. Like C, GS (144.26 -0.69 -0.48%) was up today until closing down a bit. FAZ (14.93 +0.77 +5.5%) finished the day up, but overall got hammered in the latter part of the week. I wouldn't touch C unless it dipped below 3.60 again. Generally, C has been a solid buy below 3.80 and a must-sell above 4.10 over the past 18 months.

• FXE (122.37 -0.85 -0.69%) slid while the dollar (UUP 25.21 +0.14 +0.56%) was up. EUO (24.91 +0.35 +1.43%) finished closer to its high than low. I don't like the turmoil in the euro. Germany's deutschemark may be the most stable currency on the continent.

• FXI (39.38 -0.35 -0.88%) took a breather after a solid week on an uptrend. At some point, as one of the leaders of the global rally, FXI is going to double dip or consolidate before resuming the uptrend. Big Brother cooled its overheating economic engine in the nick of time, staving off hyperinflation, and the market there responded as well as can be expected within a 21% plunge. FXP (42.17 (+0.67 +1.61%) gave China bears a few cheers today.

• GLD (118.88 +0.19 +0.16%) closed just 4¢ below its intraday high. SLV (18.03 -0.09 -0.50%) opened down 8¢ and never got back to yesterday's closing price. I like SLV better; the upside is there if price manipulation can be unmasked and rid of.

• GOOG (485.63 -4.83 -0.98%) is giving traders a chance to get in below 500. Between the Android and AdMob, forces are in play to boost shares. As a leader (or co-leader with Apple) in the soon-to-be lucrative mobile advertising market, GOOG has intriguing upside and, aside from Apple, very limited competition. A double dip in the broad market could take GOOG back to its near-term support at 469, but the upside is attractive.

• IMAX (16.95 -0.25 -1.45%) has been dead to me for a few weeks. With disappointing returns on Shrek 4, shares are in yo-yo land. I won't be interested unless they drip below 16 again.

• NBG (2.45 -0.09 -3.54) hasn't impressed any remaining friends by demanding tweaks in the bailout* package. Could shares plummet to 2.25 or even 2.00? It wouldn't shock me. The work ethic and fiscal policy of this nation are questionable at best. Come on ... retirement at 60 with generous pension plans? STD (10.15 -0.28 -2.68%) took a hit today, as well, on Fitch's downgrade. Until then, however, STD was as high as 10.49. Shares continue to remain fairly strong through this crisis. IRE (5.20 -0.21 -3.95%) dipped after a three-day rally.

• TLT (96.50 +0.44 +0.46%) and lightly-traded TMF (39.11 +1.04 +2.73%) were positive as traders put their trust in Treasurys. TMF has been steady since hitting a low of 28.67 on April 7, but has sold off since hitting a 43.28 high on Tuesday when the market finally rallied.

• USO (34.03 -0.27 -0.79%) flat today, while SCO (15.36 +0.25 +1.65%) continues to feed off the depths of crude oil's fall. USO had a nice rally this week as crude lifted above $70 per barrel. Some analysts are calling for $85 oil this year, but the bears see a dip below $60.

[Update: Should add that DUG (PowerShares UltraShort Oil & Gas) had a strong day — up 2.72, +4.1% to 69.08.]

Have a safe and restful weekend, everybody. Aloha!



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