Tuesday, May 1, 2012

Manufacturing offense

6:06 am (Hawaii) Manufacturing numbers came in higher than expected and the market took off. After lollygagging slightly in the red for the first 30 minutes or so, it bolted. Dow +81 (+0.6%), NAS +30 (+1%) and S&P +12 (+0.8%).

So instead of meandering lower, AAPL got a jolt ran from 582 to 593 in a mad dash. While I nodded off at my desk. I missed a shot at the 580s, but jumped back in at 593.50 with a full position. Last time I was in, I sold at 616 and 609.

Still holding ZAGG though it's got no legs right now. It was above 13.50 in premarket, almost no volume and I had a small profit on paper. Now it's barely above 13.00, near where I started my position. It's had a huge run in the past week, so a pit stop is no surprise. Earnings in two days (Thursday), so the breather won't last forever. As AAPL runs, the bulls should stomp the shorts in ZAGG. People will buy iPads and iPhones, and they will continue to buy Zagg's fancy protective cases.

The financials are all green thanks to the manufacturing numbers with the exception of GS, which is down only a fraction of a percentage point. FAS is +3.5%.

Update 6:01 am Profit taking in ZAGG has chopped it 1.5% to 12.84. It dipped all the way to 12.59 only the way these small floats can. Annoying, annoying, annoying. It did touch my stop loss level (mental), but I decided to stay in it with the market (Dow Jones) up more than 100 points.

Only explanation is the traders took the profits in ZAGG once is became obvious it wasn't moving higher after that 30% move in the past several days. They went elsewhere since a heavy majority is up today, including AAPL, which ran to 596+ and has pulled back a pinch to 594+. So the question in ZAGG is now, is the run done? Even with earnings on Thursday, has it been played out? Have all the AAPL plays played out already? My guess it's a temporary lull. But I'm not willing to ride this down again into the 12.60s or lower.

Should've stuck with my hunch and gotten out when it pulled back from 13.30ish to 13.00.

Update 8:40 am Exited AAPL at 587.60, loss of $6/share. Small loss, strictly out on discipline. Turned out, of course, that I was chasing and chasing late on this. Too excited about AAPL. Also got into FAS at 108.55, stopped out at 108.10. FAS and the market had been paring gains, but now the market is in slight rally mode. FAS is at 108.23.

I'd never hold FAS overnight anyway; trying to time a second run late in the day is always dicey. All I have now is ZAGG, which has hovered in the 12.60s lately. Now 12.69.

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