Monday, May 14, 2012

Keeping it tight (updated 10 am)

3:04 am (Hawaii) Taking no chances, sold a small position in JPM at 24.24 (entry 23.57, +3%). Most gap-ups in the past couple of weeks get sold off after the opening bell. No good news for JPM over the weekend.

Update 9:34 am FAZ rose to 24.57 or so after I sold this morning (before the opening bell). No regrets though. Even with all the negative financial news, FAZ is not something that climbs to a peak and rests there. It's a pure trading vehicle, and through the day, there were three drastic pullbacks. It sat around 24.20 before making another major run higher in the past hour and is now at 24.65.

It's tempting to chase, but with the price up 4.6% for the day, I expect profit taking before the closing bell. Greece's politicians will meet again in the morning, and the flood of bad news out of JPMorgan will likely slow down some.

In addition, volume in FAZ is "only" 15M shares today compared to 20M on Friday. The run may be done for awhile, and once it slows, price will fall off a cliff, as always.

GSVC is fascinating. Now at 17.91 after touching 18.00 about an hour ago. It's up 4.7% today and up much more since bottoming at 16.25 on Friday (intraday) on a huge gap down. Facebook is moving a lot of the social stocks. LNKD +3%, SVVC +6.5%.

GSVC's volume is above average, but far below what it had on Friday (nearly 6M shares). It's another toy for the big boys, able to drop a dollar in a few minutes, leaving you and me as the retail bagholders instantly.

AAPL is testing its intraday low at 559.82. I still anticipate a drop to its Fibonacci retrace (range 396 to 644), which would be 546.

Update 10:00 am Considered going long GSVC even after a 4.1% gain today, but with GRPN announcing its earnings after the bell, too risky. Bad guidance and/or numbers would hit all the social stocks. I want to be in GSVC (made and lost on it the past two weeks), but this can wait until tomorrow. Or after GRPN's report.

Did get back into FAZ before the close at 24.76. The Greeks meet in the morning but my expectation is that nothing gets solved overnight. They'll drag it out just like everything else, accepting Euro help for decades and then complaining when their lifestyle is threatened.

AAPL traded down to 557.60 before the bell. Big money is off the field and watching from the VIP luxury boxes.

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