Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Turrbl Tuesday (updated)

7:00 am (Hawaii) Turns out Monday was no big deal compared to Tuesday's open. I slept through the first 3-4 hours, woke up to find that the indices are down 1.3 to 1.5%, and that my lone position, GSVC had dropped all the way to 17.50. But seeing it at 18.30 now was a relief ... until I refreshed my browser and realized that I'd forgotten that stop-loss order at 17.76.

In other words, I got GSVC at 17.72 a week ago, saw it run to 19.71 by late Friday, held it ... and sold it today for a 4-cent gain. Yeah. That sucks. The defensive measure, the "insurance" I had in case the market cratered, turned into a paper loss. In hindsight, I should've sold above 19, but frankly I imagined GSVC bolting above 20 this week with Facebook on its IPO tour.

It's something else to see a net account value rise nicely on just one fairly small position, then see it evaporate into a non event. Now the question is, do I re-enter GSVC at 1830? (Now 18.38.) Or is a play on the financials better? Or too late. FAZ is near its intraday high, up 4% to 23.02 as the finnies are in a bloodbath.

I'm going on the road in a few minutes, so managing anything will be almost impossible. Best to be neutral/flat in this market. But the GSVC trade today will take awhile to get over. It's just very difficult to manage things when the market opens at 3:30 am (Hawaii time) and I can't sleep early enough or stay up long enough.

Could be worse, of course. GSVC could be at 17 or 16. Then I'd be wishing I had a stop loss. Or I might be getting more shares.

Update 9:59 am Back in GSVC (moderate/half position) at 18.35. It held up on a selloff day, though vulnerable like nay other stock (as this morning showed). Still on the road, so I haven't had a chance to catch up on the market news. Looking at FAZ as a possibility (again).

Biggest question is not whether the EU and US get stimulus (stimuli?), but when the big money will flow back into the markets.

Felt real good to have GSVC the past week at 17.72. From this point on, though, for the next few days (or weeks), strict price discipline is required. Or I can have one position as a long-term hold and another for swing trades. I tried that with AAPL a few years back and did decent. Just couldn't hold on long term from 96 and 215. A woulda coulda.

Update 10:31 am AAPL bottomed today (for now) at 558.73, closed at 568.17. Lowest point since April 24, when it hit 555+ — the day before the earnings report. Is 558+ going to do it? Has it really filled the gap? I still look at 546 as the real test (Fibonacci retrace from 396 to 640).

Can't blame anyone for picking up some AAPL down here though. Nothing is wrong, nothing has changed (really) since the earnings blowout. But the worst in Euroland is yet to come, probably, and I would love to get some apples below 550. Is that greedy?

Which comes first for AAPL: a catalyst or big money simply having nothing left to sell any more?

Update 11:23 am Added a handful of FAZ. I realize the Greece/EU pile of shit news may be done (for now), but it's a little protection against my long position in GSVC. What I really want is to nibble into AAPL ... but without a real catalyst in the near future, there may be enough time to be patient.

As Germany, Greece and the EU, Germany is finally telling Greece that it is S.O.L.

National Post: Germany to Greece: No austerity, no aid

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