Friday, October 26, 2007

Energy Trade: Crude Behavior

Crude oil is over $91. Turkey is poised to snuff out the Kurds (Iraq). Fear prevails and oil goes up. What's the trade?

• Yingli Green Energy (YGE) broke out to a new high above $34 on heavy volume. This is a stock I've followed for a few months, but never took a dip into the water. Of all the potential energy plays I like, YGE is the smallest cap but also one with the most potential to double. It was $20 in mid-September, but volume and price have been explosive.

• Potash had a great earnings report this week, and as long as ethanol is a factor, POT will keep rising. The Co says that global fertilzer demand remains at a high, and though the stock is at insane levels, the growth is real.

• PetroChina, even at $245, has been consolidating for the past week or so, and is now trading at its short-term (10-day) moving averages. Dare I say this is a buy? Perhaps, but only with a small position. PTR is the golden child of Big Red. In other words, practically money in the bank. Who has more leverage in the world than the Chinese government and economy?

• CNOOC (CEO) is my favorite of the oil and natural gas companies, but is trading well above its moving averages.

I would love to grab shares of YGE, but I'm out of dry powder unless I sell my positions in China Digital TV (stuck at 39) and Longtop Financial Technologies (can't stay above 30).

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