Friday, November 9, 2007

Who will lead the rally?

Bulls say Apples, bears say oranges.

Is this a buy now?


















I added a few more shares at 165.70 just before the close.

Just a thought: Apple shares hit a then-high of 148 on July 26 before pulling back to 119 intra-day on Aug. 16, the darkest day of the subprime sludge. That slide of 19.6% was astounding, though nothing like the pullback of the year before. In July of 2006, Apple had corrected from the 80s to the low 50s, a drop of nearly 40%.

Things are a bit different now for Apple, which is riding the wave of 1) iPhone, 2) iTouch, 3) substantial growth with Macs, 4) global growth. If we get a similar, 19.6% slide like the one over the summer, AAPL will drop from its recent high of 192 to 154. A big if. I think it could happen. The Fed is out of rate cuts for the short term. Financials are slow to be forthcoming about the severeity of their mortgage nightmares. Apple at 154 is only 6.7% away. For now, though, I'm content with today's buy at 165, and even yesterday's premature buy at 175. Not overly happy, not overly upset.

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