Monday, January 24, 2011

First things first

It's 7:34 a.m. in Honolulu. Cloudy and cool. I got some work done early this morning, a big chunk out of the way. I did notice AAPL at 332 earlier, but kept at work and did not allow myself to be distracted by the market.

AAPL is now teetering up at 335, roughly a 2.5% gain from Friday's close above 326. Volume is moderate (12.3 million shares) compared to last week (26M to 67M between Tuesday and Friday), but it's still a notable session so far. Are the big boys piling back in? Is this all about retail frenzy? Both?

I wouldn't be afraid to re-enter at these levels considering the probability of AAPL shares hitting 400 at some point this summer or fall, if not winter. But I'm in no rush here. AAPL usually bounces in a channel after the earnings selloff, so there's money to be made for short-term traders. I've liked 332 as a pivot point for 10 days now, having watched since 332 as shares rose to 357. I refuse to be superstitious about 332 itself, but it's clearly an area worth examining.

The sky isn't falling regardless of Shanghai or any other hotspot in the markets. I'm going to recite certain mantras to myself in the coming days and weeks that will include the wisdom of trusting fundamentals, watching for dark skies on the horizon and being equally flexible and anchored. After all, a buy-and-hold AAPL shareholder at 80 has done quite well. So has a trader who understands the channels of AAPL's price range and swings appropriately.

Back to work.

Update, 10:41 a.m. Reopened a position in AAPL around an hour ago at 335.34. Not exactly early to the party, but it'll do for now.

Update, 1:42 p.m. Maybe should've unloaded at 338, but I really wasn't expecting that price afterhours. (After hitting 338 for an instant, shares settled back closer to 337. Now at 337.20 AH.) There's always that sliver of a chance that some catastrophic news could hit the company and stock overnight, which is lame rationale for selling AAPL while up just $2 or so.

Here's some technical insight from one of the greatest traders on Earth, StockGuy22.

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