Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Quick breather is over?

Less than 5 hours until the open and the world is green and groovy. Asia up (Hang Seng +1.5%, Nikkei and Straits up fractionally. FTSE, DAX and CAC up big early, but might sell off like the Nikkei did before close. Who knows?

Tuesday may have been nothing more than a hiccup in AAPL's run to 352, 400 or whatever optimists are thinking. My only question is, if and when it drops to 337 first, will I start at least a half-position? Even the Apple bears have to acknowledge that the stock is still in a sweet spot right now. All good news and nothing resembling bad news in sight. For miles.

It's purely mathematical and logical, so why do traders like me have trouble pulling the buy trigger here? Or at 337? I suppose I'm challenging myself to make a calculated act based on probabilities of risk. That's the only way I can look at it. Las Vegas just ain't me, so I need to weigh every scenario.

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