Thursday, January 20, 2011

Thumpdown Thursday

It was just a couple of years ago, maybe 18 months, when an old friend bought some GOOG at 432. He was satisfied until the market sold off in a major correction and his shares sank 100 bucks or so. He held on. He was rewarded. GOOG is trading at 644 afterhours thanks to a robust earnings report, up 2.75% from the close (626). Quite a run, but will it top out like AAPL? Apple lost its CEO (temporarily?), Steve Jobs, due to medical issues. GOOG just announced that CEO Eric Schmidt is changing positions. He tweeted that "adult supervision is no longer needed."

If I were a GOOG shareholder, I'd tweet, "WTF???"

I slept marvelously through today's market, catching only the first 30 minutes or so. AAPL declined to 330 before bouncing to 332. Those round numbers, 350, 340, 330 ... they play with trader psychology, no question. StockGuy22 has always noted that. He's right.

My hunch that VXX would benefit from an AAPL pullback (1.8%) was wrong. VXX is down (-1%) in a market absent chaos and complete unpredictability. VXX clearly does well when there are riots on the streets of Greece or when North Korea sends missiles into the air. But here, VXX is hemmed in by a quiet global environment, so I'm exploring other issues.

ETFs on an upswing in a down market today: TBT (+2.6%), DPK (+2.3%), EDZ (+3.1%), EEV (+2.2%), FXP (+3.1%), LHB (+3.8%), SMN (+2.7%), TZA (+3.1%).

Others up today: FSLR (+2.6%), STP (2%), SOLR (+4.3%), V (+2.3%), MMR (+5.9%)

The hardest hit today were also some of the hottest risers: NFLX (-3.1%), AMZN (-2.6%), POT (-3%), VMW (-3.8%), NILE (3.2%), NTDOY (-5.3%), BIDU (1.5%), CRM (-6.4%), FWLT (3.5%), SNDK (-3%), YUM (-1.3%), JOYG (-3.7%), QCOM (-1.5%), ANSS (-5.1%), AKAM (-2.3%), GIGM (-3.5), TQNT (-4.3%), RHT (-5%), UA (-2%), RAX (-10.9%), SLV (-4.4%), GLD (-1.9%)

Most of these stocks were due for a pullback, just like AAPL.

The threat of rising interest rates could simultaneously dent both the stock and bond markets. Taking a very close look at TBT tomorrow.

Some of the steady risers didn't sell off much, if at all today: F (-0.7%), IMAX (+0.6%), C (+0.8%).

Good to be in cash. Better to be flexible and stay one step ahead, or in my case, off the field and on the sidelines.

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