2:18 am (Hawaii). Never had sex with an ex. Not ashamed to say it either. But if you can deal with ex-sex, you probably rode TVIX and VXX and anything else that saw the light of day yesterday, only to dump it before the close for a nice bit of pocket change. Or, as in the case of Jon Najarian, it was his most profitable day of the year.
I envy that. I also was overpowered by the uncertainty of the globe, of people delving into things that probably are a foot or two beyond our comprehension and reach. But we keep trying in the name of knowledge and self-sufficiency, or at the very least, just as an admission that we are powerless to end our dependency on crude oil, nuclear energy and coal.
Premarket started about 18 minutes ago without my presence and 55% of my watch list is green, 25% red and 20% unchanged (or untraded). Futures are bright green, mostly in energy and commodities and, yes, precious metals. Copper (+2.9%), palladium (+2.2%), soybean oil (+3.1%), oats (+2.2%), rough rice (2.3%), soybeans (+2.8%), wheat (+3.2%), cotton (2.5%) and more. I don't trade this stuff, but it says something about the climate of the market right now.
DJIA (+0.03%), S&P 500 (+0.02%) and Nasdaq 100 (+0.03%) are barely positive. Crude oil is up 2.4% (99.72). Without catching up on the news, it appears that stability has returned in moderation so far.
It's been a long time since I've seen so much of my watch list green. UCO (50.02, +2.6%) has barely traded. Same with EXK (8.65, +2.2%) and SLW (40.45, +2%), but they're at the top of the list. WNR, the oil refiner, hasn't traded yet. So much bullishness, and yet VXX is up slightly (+0.2%).
AAPL is down a fraction (344.62). NFLX continues to soar (222.36, +2.4%) off yesterday's Goldman Sachs upgrade. The second AAPL gets an upgrade, I won't be surprised if it rockets.
Somebody's lying
It's probable that NFLX is simply exploding on another major short squeeze. It's probable that even an analyst upgrade wouldn't fuel AAPL as explosively.
Just minutes before the opening bell and NFLX is atop my watch list (222.05, +2.3%). FCX (52.53, +2.1%) is second and IPI, LULU and EXK follow. UCO, NGD, PAAS, TVIX, QID, SLW ... what a weird mix of leaders. A dysfunctional combination, indeed.
Meanwhile, PSUN is cratering (-9.3%) and SBUX (-2%) and LVS (-1.9%) are also at the bottom of my watch list.
Update, 3:31 am (Hawaii). AAPL sinking in early trading, trying to stay above 341. Support at 338, then 326. Market is slightly down, but 62% of my watch list is green.
QID is up 1.4%. SLW had been above 40 in premarket, but is now below. Smells like a BS premarket that will sell off early today, but I'm not putting any money where my mouth is.
Update, 3:39 am (Hawaii). OPEN exploding to the top of my watch list, now 90.60 (+2.9%). Why so high? Merriman Capital downgraded OPEN while raising estimates. Yeah, that sounds forked up.
EXK was close to the top of the list, pushing above 8.70 and I considered a small position. But within a minute, it puked and fell to 8.55. Roller coaster puke.
Update, 3:49 am (Hawaii). OPEN tailing off a bit from its high (91.63). 50% retrace would bring it to 89.82, but market is directionless right now, tough call. With LULU up 2.4% and GMCR up 2.5%, it's clear that daytraders are playing the momentum, probably until lunch hour at the latest. Don't get stuck holding the bag!
UCO climbed above 50, finally. TVIX still robust (52.80, +2.3%) while VXX stinks it up in comparison (+1.2%).
AAPL bounced off 339.06, now 340.54. Expecting a test of 338 at some point.
Update, 4:10 am (Hawaii). Interesting disconnect in copper futures (+2.5%) and FCX (-0.3%). EXK scared the crap out of me when it plunged from 8.72 to 8.50 in a minute or two, but has since rallied to 8.79. That's a heck of a scalp for anybody who stepped in. I've been waiting for a pullback to start a position, but it refuses to dip.
AAPL held up at support (338), but still on thin ice. Apparently, though the key parts will still be built for iPhones and iPads, the slowdown is enough to bump AAPL this low and possibly lower. No breaks for this stock.
My watch list is now 68% green, 32% red, and the market is barely underwater. It would be surprising if the market didn't finish green today. Even without AAPL leading the way.
Silver is a temptress
5:21 am (Hawaii). That didn't go so good. I opened a little position in EXK at 8.75 after it broke through the earlier HOD. It went gradually to 8.85, looked toppy and I nearly put in a stop loss sell order to insure it wouldn't lose money. Then it proceeded to tank all the way to 8.33 or so on the EU Energy chief's negatoid outlook on Japan's nuclear crisis, as if we needed to hear it from him.
I stuck by my technicals and waited out the downturn. And waited. And waited. Eventually, EXK bounced right up to 8.66 before running out of gas. I sold at 8.55 after missing 8.59. A small loss, but it could've been worse had I sold at the bottom. The percentage of loss equals less than half of 1 percent of my trading funds. It was a sight to behold during the drop. When Nasdaq showed -1.24% (after nearly getting back to even earlier), that was a holee sugar moment. The volume is muted on my TV so I had no idea what was going on until the drop resembled a sheer cliff and I followed the subtitles on the TV.
Even in a market as sick as this, I lost my discipline and did not sell at my original (mental) stop loss, which was 8.77. But as it dropped, I talked myself into changing the plan. Too confident or optimistic. The only smart thing I did was wait it out.
iPad w/ art sold on eBay
Update, 5:54 am (Hawaii). AAPL off the cart. The EU Energy chief's speech resulted in a mini-flash crash for a LOT of stocks, including AAPL, which sold off to 332+ briefly. Shares rallied to 338, but are now down to 334. Can AAPL close the day at support (338)? Or maybe 326 is closer than expected.
6:06 am (Hawaii). Nasdaq now down 1.44%, low of the day. AAPL back at 332.83 while TVIX is up 12.3%, VXX up 6.2% and QID up 4%. EXK well off its highs at 8.50. UCO off its HOD at 49.28.
Also, EDX up 3.9% and WNR up 2.8% (to 16.51). My wish list has reversed again with only 28% green now. OPEN is in the red (87.99) after momo traders dumped it at the HOD.
9:05 am (Hawaii). TVIX ran up to 64+ as I slept. Woh! Yesterday's close (51.62) and today's HOD (64.72) puts the 50% retrace at 58.17. TVIX has pulled back and is now 57.99. Stochastics are at 30 and climbing again, though MACD signal and line are negative.
During that plunge between 2 and 2:15 pm (Eastern), AAPL sunk to 326, the other support line I mentioned earlier. That level held and AAPL is now back at 332. I haven't even examined where AAPL's support would be if 326 cracked. Let's see... looks like it would be 300, though that dip extended as low as 297 intraday during that session. There's already been an Apple analyst on CNBC who expects shares to fall to the 200-day moving average: 298. AAPL is already hovering at its 100-day MA.
9:43 am (Hawaii). 17 minutes to the closing bell. TVIX giving way, finally, after gaining as much as 16+%. Traders taking their TVIX profits. Easy money? I don't think so. Riding TVIX requires 10 or 20 barf bags per trip. The spread, the pinball action ... completely Tazer-ish. Now at 59.30, dipping below 30 on stochastics and the MACD line and signal, which were positive, are now turning downward.
11:19 am (Hawaii). Talk about percolating pot of bleaah. I dared myself, in some way, to enter TVIX after eyeballing it for a long time. I got a decent price, 59.99, with the thought that it could run to 61+, especially after hitting 64+ earlier in the session. What I did not know is that the power company in Japan had already announced that it was close to completing a new power line to one of the failing nuclear reactors in Fukushima.
But TVIX ran, apparently because the same company soon after said that it couldn't pinpoint a time when the power line would be ready. So TVIX ran to 60.62 before the bell. I thought, again, about placing a stop-loss order. I've never followed or traded TVIX after the bell. But I didn't sell. Shares stayed at 60.50 or so for several minutes, but eventually slid below 60. I decided to get out, but pressure was to the downside, and with a hugely momo ETF like this, I almost had to stop staring at the price action. All over the place. I put in the sell order at 59.51 and TVIX continued lower. I held there, though. Eventually, half my order sold. Then, an hour or so later, the other half sold and I took a tiny loss.
1. Had I protected myself, it would've been a tiny profit or break even, but the range of the price from one blink of the eye to the next is so wide, allowing it to range around is almost a must.
2. It's impossible to get a feel for TVIX without knowing exactly what the news is out of Japan or elsewhere. I blame this on trading from my bed, which is, of course, my own fault. (It was so relaxing, though.)
3. Selling was a no-brainer, even with the power company seemingly uncertain. TVIX could easily, easily run back down to 51 or 47, the latter being the closing price on Monday. That would've been a significant losing trade rather than a tiny one.
4. Had I been stuck with half of my position — if that half hadn't sold in this thinly-traded issue after hours — it would've been a tolerable risk.
Of course, now that I'm out of TVIX, the bid is now 59.51 and the ask is 61.77. There was a trade of 40,000 shares at 59.86 a few minutes ago. It's still a better overnight hold than VXX (time decay eats into the price before morning), but being 100% cash again is fine by me. If that power line is somehow connected sometime before tomorrow's opening bell, TVIX probably returns to 50 in an instant.
Teevixen can be a maneater
Update, 11:49 am (Hawaii). This would explain the 40,000-share lot in TVIX afterhours (59.86) as well as the much higher ask (61+): the dollar-yen support is totally decimated. More below at Zero Hedge. Reuters reports that foreign firms want the Tokyo Stock Exchange to close tomorrow (which is actually just two hours from now).
CNBC is reporting that Japanese officials are calling a press conference at that same time. Maybe they'll talk about the power line. Or shutting down TSE for a day. Maybe both. Maybe neither. They'll talk, though, and that's welcome.
Update, 12:16 pm (Hawaii). A look at TVIX, EXK and AAPL.
Not much to be gained from TVIX's chart
Just pretty, that's all
Winter's TVIX shorts are long gone
Today's volume the most ever
EXK under selling pressure two days in a row
EXK in choppy seas after a big run
AAPL under relentless selling pressure
after today's downgrade
50-day moving average (rope of hope) snapped.
Now the 100-day MA is being tested.
Prince of the Refiners? WNR warming up
WNR and refiners are in a sweet spot
Reuters: TSE to keep Japan's trading floors open (Mar 16 2011)
Zero Hedge: USDJPY goes bidless (Mar 16 2011)
Reuters: EU energy chief says Japan reactor 'out of control' (Mar 16 2011)
Wall Street Journal: US stock futures turn slightly higher, crude up $2 (Mar 16 2011)
WSJ: Bahrain crackdown sparks rebound in oil prices (Mar 16 2011)
Business Insider: JMP downgrades AAPL (Mar 16 2011)
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