AAPL (+1.45%) opened premarket at 355 has hovered at that level since, touching 358 now and then. I didn't want to chase, so I'm still all cash.
PSUN is flat at 4.52, but if this market doesn't cool off, it will probably join the ride up with the rest of the consumer retail names. Even NFLX is holding on to modest gains so far.
The oil and precious metals sector are taking a beatdown after a long run. EXK, PHYS, SLV, SLW, GLD, NDG, all suffering. But the worst on my list are ETFs QID, VXX and TVIX (-7.7%).
Maybe tomorrow will be too late to work trades on OPEN, PSUN, AAPL ... but OPEN opened at 87+ and ran to 90+. All-time high of 95.97 isn't far away.
AAPL opened at 356.83, moved just above 358. It closed yesterday above 352, so a lot of traders took their nice profits early today. All-time high is 365 or so.
No chasing here. In hindsight, I missed the entry opportunity yesterday. However, there's no tangible way to measure peace of mind by being 100% cash overnight while the globe can ignite again at any time. AAPL and/or OPEN on a pullback is on my menu.
1:17 pm (Hawaii). 62% of my watch list in the green. What a day for bulls, even on the typical low volume. Four months (or less) of play time in the bull pen before QE madness dissolves. I slept through the market after the first hour or so. Slept good. Time to time I got up to check on AAPL, which never really had serious selling pressure today. I thought hedge funds would stay out. Well, they jumped back into their beloved apples in full force, moving AAPL to 359+.
I'm disgruntled over not opening at least half a position in my favorite company/stock this week. It was available at 352 yesterday after hours. Was there at 355 this morning. Technicals and fundamentals are my tools, but at some point, being so adverse to risk hurts my bankroll than helps.
It would appear, however, that the big boys are anticipating a nice payroll number tomorrow (from the Fed) or AAPL would've sold off big from its HOD. If they're wrong about the number, danger.
SLW is trading up late in the day, now 43.99 after trading up to 44.48 briefly in a weird, schizo move that was quickly sold off in the afternoon. I'm going to assume Silver Wheaton had a positive earnings report. Conference call is tomorrow. The big pluses: dividend and massive growth, especially going forward. Big minus: price of silver and gold are being manipulated to no end.
The puppet masters are at their best (or worst if you're long a PM) on those three-day weekends, trading thin markets and yanking the reins on silver and gold. We still have tomorrow, but anything can happen overnight.
UCO still at the pit stop, having a cold beverage, maybe a sandwich. Propping his feet up and enjoying the air conditioning at the nearby snack bar. Crude oil can go to 150, but UCO and stocks will still move according to human psychology, and it was clearly time for a break. I still do not believe the Fed will allow the price of crude to go straight to 150 without a pit stop here and there.
Update, 2:09 pm (Hawaii). Cloudy in the islands, at least in Honolulu, but sunny for AAPL longs everywhere in the universe. Yes, this alien hardware and software is unbeatable and Steve Jobs' ability to borrow technology from the outer reaches of the galaxy never ceases to amaze. AAPL was at 352+ before Wednesday's iPad 2 show (starring Jobs). I'm going to use 352 as the new launching point for the next trading range. All Fibonacci levels of the past few weeks are moot now. The catalyst has arrived. A new world to explore for traders. At 359, AAPL is already up 2% in little more than 24 hours. A 5% gain would place shares at 370. 5% for a spectacular upgrade of the greatest new product of the new decade ... fair enough.
So, getting shares here at 359 ... yes or no? A bad Fed number tomorrow would give hedge funds a lower price to add more AAPL. The only thing I'm certain about is that AAPL will see 370 soon barring global catastrophe. I'm 80-20 on that, no new major crisis vs. catastrophe. It comes down more to external factors than AAPL, frankly, at these nosebleed levels. AAPL has immense value, but the slightest hiccup globally will have hedge funds sprinting for the exits. My edge number is 60% (80-20). I like it, even though 352 and 338 are history.
1. AAPL is going to 370: Highly probable. (99-1)
2. A downturn in the market would be bought up by hedge funds: Probable. (75-25)
3. Chance of AAPL going lower and staying lower for an extended period of time: Possible. (20-80)
4. If global chaos resumes tomorrow, money will stay out of AAPL over the weekend: Possible. (10-90). This is a big IF.
AAPL 2 day, 5-minute chart
Almost no selling pressure today
AAPL 1 year daily
Higher lows, yes
Higher high coming?
Update, 3:14 pm (Hawaii). Time slipped by and I didn't open a position at AAPL (359.95). 100% cash is fine.
Thursday reading
Harvey Organ: Bankers told Gartman there was going to be a gold/silver raid (Mar 3 2011) "Yesterday, Dennis Gartman was on CNBC explaining to his audience the virtues of gold and silver. Last night, (by) miraculous intervention by spirits unknown, Dennis wrote to his clients that he has decided to liquify all of his gold contracts. And lo and behold, we had a big raid today."
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