Wednesday, November 2, 2011

13.33? (updated 944 am HST)

3:35 am (Hawaii) Looking for FAS Fib retrace to 13.33 off its high today of 13.69. Dow currently +162 (1.4%), Nasdaq up 31 (+1.2%), S&P +19 (+1.6%).

Update 4:04 am FAS touched 13.33, finally, for a minute or two, rose up to 13.45, now dipping a second time. If it can hold at 13.33 for more than a minute, fine. I'm not optimistic or skeptical. Everything is in flux because of Greece and today's FOMCpalooza.

Update 8:22 am Got my sleep, woke up about an hour ago, just lounging in bed. Laptop and Bloomberg TV online. I guess I could say I was in bed with Betty Loo this morning. FAS ran to 13.92 off that Fib retrace to 13.33. The precision of that retrace was cool, highly entertaining and fun. Too bad I didn't buy. I had an order in, but it never filled.  

As I slept, FAS pulled back again probably based on the Fed minutes of its 2-day meeting (no policy change). An hour ago, FAS dipped to 13.20, low of the day, and then ran to 13.54 before selling off again, mini-waterfall style. Currently at 13.26-13.33. So FAS is back to today's Fib retrace level.

Dow +123 (+1%), Nasdaq +13 (+0.5%), S&P +11.85 (+0.9%). FAZ is at 43.17-43.24 here.

Staying out through Bernanke's press conference.

Update 8:50 am From Business Insider, predictions from the Fed:
  • It lowered GDP growth forecasts for 2011 from 2.7%-2.9% in June to 1.6%-1.7%. For 2012, it revised projections downward to 2.5%-2.9%.
  • The Fed boosted unemployment projections to 9.0-9.1% from 8.6%-8.9%.
  • The Fed also raised PCE inflation estimates slightly for this year to 1.8-1.9% (they were predicting 1.5%-1.9%). Predictions for next year were relatively unchanged, however, at 1.5%-2.0%.
Meanwhile, FAS has broken higher to 13.49. No apparent reason why.

Update 9:44 am Not touching anything here, though I have a bias to the long side. 13.51 is a crucial point for FAS, being the 50% retrace price of the latest run from 13.21 to 13.80. FAS is testing this intraday support level for the second time now.

No comments: