Wednesday, April 29, 2009

You snooze, you lose

Just back from a work assignment. Sunny Manoa, where the league chiefs meet every few months. On the way to lunch -- couldn't decide between cashew nut chicken (Bangkok Chef) or rib-eye steak (Ducky's), so i got both.

Somewhere between here and there, I realized why Jim Cramer was so weary of DNDN (though he supposedly is bullish now). Cramer used to work at Goldman Sachs, and he was a successful hedge-fund manager. He probably knows tons of those traders and managers, and the scheme that knocked 45 percent off DNDN's price yesterday (Tuesday) before the company's Provenge presentation at AUA was something that Cramer, and even Guy Adami and Pete Najarian of Fast Money know quite well.

Collusion. Backhanded dealing. Whatever it's called, they recognize the fingerprints. That's why they're all so, so quiet about something that rocked the market on national TV, so to speak. Cramer railed against naked shorting on Monday, calling out the SEC (again) and demanding that the uptick rule be revised in full (not watered down). I agree with him on that, but when these Wall Street guys go quiet on something like the manipulation of DNDN's stock, it feels a lot like a gag order. Or like being in a witness protection program. Nobody wants to spill the beans.

I was worn out last night, fell asleep on the couch and didn't wake up until about 4:30 a.m. -- an hour after the open. I have no idea how DNDN traded in premarket, but it opened at 27.02 and rose to 27.40 while I caught my Z's. Unfortunately, it was down to 25 by 4:30 and I watched. No stop-loss order. No way. But when I left to go work, it was down to 24ish and later closed at 22.94.

Should I have sold at 27? Yeah, and I might have done that if I'd gone to my bed and set the alarm for premarket. It would've made my late buys yesterday (at the 24 range) profitable.

Should I have sold at 25? In hindsight, yes, even if I plan to buy and hold DNDN shares. Sell at least half, look for more pullback to get shares cheap. Instead, I held on to most of the shares, hating the droppage and thinking about going back to sleep. Staring at the real-time quote is meaningless unless there's a purpose or plan to sell today.

I did sell a couple hundred shares at 23.95 (break even), which gave me a little cash to look at LVS, which popped big (with the rest of the market). Too bad I sold my LVS at 7 last week. I plan to build that position back up bit by bit. Same with ATVI, which I re-bought today after Goldman Sachs called it a buy. Unfortunately, I bought at 11.15, near the top, and it sold off to 10.73 by the close. GS targets ATVI for 14. Maybe GS had a lot of dead money in ATVI and used the new target to unload the shares.

Turns out, I should've bought LVS, which ran from 6.98 (yesterday) to 7.40 (open) to 7.72 (close). LVS flirted with 8 for awhile and is there in after hours. I'm aiming for a re-entry but not at 8.

More and more, I'm apt to leave shares alone, especially if they're my long-term favorites. I will not sell my AAPL shares again. Not selling F, which rose to 5.45 (5 percent).

It's a trader's market, like it or not, and there's no way to deny that selling DNDN at 27, then re-entering at 23 (or lower) is fiscally responsible and prudent. Of course, nobody knows for sure at 27 whether DNDN will pull back big. Good rule of thumb will be to sell 1/3 or 1/2 at the top (above 26) and expect to trade shares short term on pullbacks and spikes. It happens with all good and great stocks, including AAPL.

Holding DNDN is stressful, no question. Part of that is because I am committed to holding a core position long term. If I were trigger happy and simply trading all the shares all the time, it wouldn't be stressful at all. I have to measure that element -- stress -- as a factor in the equation. After all, I'm not a robot. And I really needed some sleep early this morning.

The other reason DNDN stresses me is the way the MMs and hedge funds manipulate it, as yesterday showed. In the back of my mind, I can't help wondering if I'll come home one morning to find the price leveled down to 5 bucks because of another sick scheme.

I still think DNDN survives the gauntlet of haters and arrives at 40, maybe 45, as analyst David Miller predicts. It won't happen this week, apparently (rim shot).

No comments: