Wednesday, April 15, 2009

On the bright side

A profit is a profit.

Always an odd feeling to wake up when you don't even remember going to sleep. But there I was, on the couch, TV still on and it was already 4 a.m. The market had opened and shares of Ciitgroup were down to 3.80 or so. It was surprising because in premarket, somewhere around 1 or 2 a.m., C was at 4.17. I don't count on the price that early, but...

But the stock is being played so closely by the market makers. It was locked between 3.81 and 3.83 for what seemed like hours. I contemplated selling, but with the market slightly in the green, I waited. It was the frog in a pot of water effect, the heat slowing getting hotter until the frog was being boiled alive without knowing it. C dropped a tiny bit at a time, and when it got to 3.75, I decided to sell about 3/4ths of my stake. Problem was, it would dip another cent or two each time I chased it down until finally, my sell price of 3.67 was hit. It was almost by accident; at 3.64, I said screw it and tried to cancel the order outright, but came back to me.

All of this is gibberish. I thought I would ride this position up or down as a core holding, longer term (not long term necessarily). Maybe trade around it with another position. But I couldn't stand the thought of losing all of my (paper) profit after seeing it fall from yesterday's high of 4.48. The people who sold at the open yesterday was a lot smarter than me. C drops big time after every short squeeze. Add in options expiring this Friday and it was, still is possible that the price could be driven down to 3.00 by then.

Anyway, I feel somewhat relieved to have locked in some profit. The rule still applies, though: it's about the numbers, and more than that, the percentages. When C was at 4.40, or 4.35 (when I was awake), it was too big a gain to ignore. I simply refused to think it would drop below 4 again.

For now, it's a lunchtime malaise (11:24 EST). I could possibly add shares above the price I sold at. But the guys who sold yesterday (Tuesday) on the spike, anticipating no real news for at least two more days ... I could've and should've seen that probability, too.

I need to decide what my pain threshold will be. I slept through the first 40 minutes today while C dropped to 3.51. Didn't bother me at all in my unconscious state. Then I wake up and basically get shaken out of a chunk of my shares. I even considered adding a few shares, not selling, at 3.82. Can I actually play it long term and short term? I thought I could.

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