Wednesday, August 8, 2007

Back at the A/A- shopping list

Just back from a busy, earthy day of work. Drove around the island to cover media day (football) at Kahuku High School and stopped at Mililani on the way back.

Football at the high school level is a wondrous thing. No matter how the generations pass, or how sophisticated kids get year by year, football grounds us all. The coaches who have a grasp of great values of the Old School and understand the importance of New School skills are the most successful. Discipline with dignity. That's all it is. Kids always respond to that combination because they instinctively love respect.

So I'm home. Grandma is eating dinner, my nephew is at practice and I have some catching up to do. All summer long, I've been used to following the market and all kinds of news and blog updates right up to the close of extended-hours trading. And then enjoying an hour of Fast Money.

Not anymore. Work is work, and though I love my job, I can't keep current on the road. Maybe I should get an iPod and get hooked on that Twitter thingamajig. Then I can keep up (or can I?) no matter what I'm doing.

I wrote earlier that I'm turning my streaming quote watch lists upside down, eyeballing them from a percentage loss criteria rather than any other order. I am looking for bargains in this choppy, nauseating market. I don't begrudge the state of the market or the slowing U.S. economy. But it's imperative to shop wisely and gain the best entry points possible. After all, AAPL is down nearly 10% from its high of $148 even as the rest of the Nasdaq had a rally party this week.

AAPL has often traded independently of the Nas, prone to drastic pullbacks (anyone remember July of 2006?). While AAPL's heathen shorts may be salivating with the stock down a buck to $134 today, it's just a matter of time before the stock moves again. It doesn't make steady moves like a CEO or FWLT. It stops and goes with the best of 'em. This stoppage of momentum is just another nice entry point for AAPL believers.

Grade A shopping list
AMZN 77. Down another 1.7% today. Can't seem to get out of the 70s. Stuck in the mud? Maybe, but why complain. Stock is up 88% since mid-April. Robust earnings reports. Raised guidance. While the stock consolidates, it settles in the upper cusp of its SMA and EMA 13- and 50-day ranges. I'm convinced that Georges Yared is correct: instiutional buying will push AMZN much higher in due time. Pupule says: Buy.

AAPL 134. The 1-year chart shows the stock within both SMA and EMA 13- and 50-day ranges. Still a buy here, especially with below-average volume on these recent down days. Pupule says: Buy.

CROX 56. That's right. Another A grade stock that's down on a huge Nasdaq day. Not to worry. Like Amazon, Crocs has popped big on the past two earnings reports and the stock is slowly consolidating in this range. Still above moving averages, but as the ship steadies, this new floor will provide nice support in the coming months. Pupule says: Wait.

GRMN 103. One of the most amazing stocks of the year. Blasting through estimates and raising guidance gave the stock a huge gap up, but there has been no true pullback since it left $83 on the eve Q2 earnings. Today's gap was the second in barely one week. Obviously, the stock is far above its moving averages. Tempting as it may be, must ... not ... chase. Pupule says: Wait.

RIMM 226. Though RIMM is on another mini-run, the stock is proof that patience allows for buying opportunities. Ever since shredding estimates, the stock was in the stratosphere far above its moving averages for more than three weeks. The consolidation last week was within the stock's upper reach of moving averages, but the recent run-up makes it a reach for buyers. Pupule says: Wait.

Grade A- shopping list
BIDU 203. This insane stock pulled back to 175 three weeks ago, easily within moving averages. Even with the gap up after earnings in late July, BIDU fell back into its averages last week. At 186, it was in the middle of the range. This week, the run has lifted the stock above the range. Worth noting that volume for the past few weeks has been below average. A heavy move up (or down) is coming in due time. Pupule says: Wait.

NILE 95. The last time Blue Nile traded above its moving averages, its stock didn't return for a whole month. This time, it could take a lot longer as the stock consolidates. That could happen in the 90s, 80s or even above 100. But that will be a safer time to buy, once there is a new floor of new buyers to join the old longs. Must resist urge to chase. Repeat this several times a day. Pupule says: Wait.

CMG 107. Hot, hot, hot. Way over its moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.

CEO 117. Definitely missed the boat at 109, even 112 yesterday. Today's big move pushed the stock out of its moving averages. Until late July, CEO had spent the previous six weeks almost entirely above its moving averages. Still, best to be patient. Pupule says: Wait.

NTDOY.PK 60. Missed the boat, I did, when Nintendo traded down to 55 last week. Now the stock is above its moving averages. Again. Pupule says: Wait.

UA 66. Under Armor still on fire, and with short interest at 50%, it's still an interesting notion though the stock is way above moving averages. A tough call for UA bulls who want more shares. Pupule says: Wait.

Pupule Paul is long AAPL, BIDU, CROX, NTDOY.PK and UA.

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