Tuesday, August 7, 2007

Smoking hot: Chipotle Mexican Grill

Chiptole may be spicy hot, but my taste buds say it's a slightly sweet, subtle combination of smoky happiness.

Yeah, my nephew took a bite of a chipotle snack wrap from McDonald's the other day and went straight to the kitchen faucet to cool his mouth off. To me, the wrap wasn't spicy at all, just smoky. With the exception of a bunch of "OK" Mexican restaurants on Oahu, that's as close as we get to anything chipotle here.

What's really en fuego is the stock of Chipotle Mexican Grill. Back in early Q2, I heard about CMG and did some digging. The fundamentals were outstanding and I rated the stock a B+. Then came the issue about avocado and cheese costs, and the stock plummeted from $86 — which is where I liked the smoky Chipotle as a B+ pick — to $79. Ai caramba.

The cost issue merited a demotion of CMG to B level. The week before earnings, the stock slipped to $77 and change, but climbed for three days in a row before the report was released. The Co scorched estimates and shares went from $88 to $99 in a day.

Shares are trading at $106 today, a gain of 37% from that mid-day low of $77 on July 26.

The concept of "fast" Mexican food isn't new. The fact that management worked around the rising costs and delivered a home run for investors is worth of a promotion back to B+. The execution and efficiency behind a monster like CMG, well, those are not common. Neither is a CMG in Hawaii. I'll be in line when one finally opens here.

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