Thursday, September 20, 2007

CNOOC: The 'other' Baidu

I pumped my tank full during an all-too-rare stop at Costco in Iwilei over the weekend. At $2.98 per gallon, I was happy to get the lowest price on Oahu. I was also happy to get a $1.50 hot dog and soda deal a few minutes later. Neither the constant use of gasoline nor the consumption of hot dogs and soda are any good for our bodies and the ecosystem. But there I was, getting a good deal all the way around before driving off to cover a football game 25 miles away.

Gotta get it cheap, no escaping that. But as gas prices come down, I can't help but expect $4 per gallon in the near future. Crude oil prices hit $83 per barrel today, and with production declining (supposedly) in the Middle East, we're at the mercy of producers, refiners and everyone in between. So, if we can't beat 'em, why not just join 'em?

I remember pounding the keyboards for CNOOC Ltd. (CEO) over the past few months. Again and again, I ranted and raved about the great future of this Co. I vividly recall writing about the stock (CEO) being a steal in the 90s, 100s, and in the 110s recently. The P/E hovered at 11 for the longest time. Not the best of breed in China — that would be PetroChina — but with 1.3 billion residents and a major increase in auto sales and gasoline demand, CEO is a prime best-of-all-worlds kind of stock. Not just being in China and being an oil/natural gas Co, but having the protection of its government.

And yet, I didn't buy a single share.

So CEO ran from 92 (subprime sludge low) to 155, pulled back today to 148 and is completely not fit for purchase, technically. But I think Goldman Sachs is right. Oil will hit $100 a barrel sooner than later, and GS could be right about a $135 price. (I don't even want to imagine the possibility of $200 per barrel.) Does the average man or woman have any way to fight back against these exhobitant gas prices?

A part of me wants to say, "Yes. If we can't beat 'em, join 'em! Buy all the CNOOC and PetroChina and Exxon and ladee-dah oil stocks that you can!" I mean, CNOOC ran up 60% since August 16, so there were many opportunities ... if you had dry powder. As gas prices rise in the coming weeks, I'll be more peeved and more eager to buy some CEO for the first time.

Coming soon, $200 for a share of CNOOC Ltd. Who woulda thunk it? CNOOC is the other Baidu.

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