Friday, May 6, 2011

Channel surfing


4:02 am (Hawaii) A nice surge at the opening bell was a bit surprising given the choppy trading overseas and the porous action in premarket, when silver stocks and bull ETFs struggled hit new lows. SLV was barely above 32.

4:07 am (Hawaii) Opened a small position in XG at 9.58. I like the action in the metals, but staying disciplined isn't easy. Most of the stocks I'm watching are surging without dips, and AGQ is stalling between 186 and 188 after a rocket-launch start. Trying not to chase EXK, but it keeps making new intraday highs, now at 9.42. I missed my shot at 9.20-9.25. On this PM bounce, it could get close to 12 again.

4:15 am (Hawaii) EXK now at 9.65. Can't enter until my indicators say yes.

4:22 am (Hawaii) Looking to enter EXK at 9.25. May not pull back there today, though.

4:45 am (Hawaii) Small positions in AGQ (196) and EXK (9.73). Not expecting a long rally and I'll be fine with break-even, if things stall out. If the dollar continues to drop and crude oil keeps bouncing, I'll stick with these positions for awhile. Like a few hours.

6:11 am (Hawaii) Horrendous trading by me. My positions got into very narrow ranges, flickering between a total net tiny loss to a total net small gain for the past 80 minutes or so. But instead of getting out once these big gainers flatlined (I got in near the highs, not the best entries), I waited too long and took a loss in AGQ (-6+), EXK (-0.24) and GPL (-0.11). Ready to sell XG. All four were up for me at one point, but this is probably the worst of my trading habits: I recognize the market has stalled, but I refuse to get out like I used to. Maybe I'm just no good as I get older, or maybe I'm more greedy than I used to be. Overconfident. But had I just sold earlier, it would've been a small profit. Instead, Mr. Market whittled away 1.5% of my roll today. Basically, today's losses cut a chunk out of my profit in silver the past week. It's probably hard to understand with the indices all up 1% or more. Not have a thesis, or not following one — my semi-thesis of yesterday called for a modest bounce for PMs, followed by another selloff (no timetable) — at all.

I admit, the prospect of seeing AGQ pushing almost to 199 had me lusting for 200 and a break much higher. But really, 199 was the roof. Lust, greed, all that stuff got in the way of reason.

Moving on. Getting out of AGQ when I did was wise, though. It's now at 185 and EXK is at 9.36. Definition of a dead-cat bounce.

I did break my own rules a bit. Trading four stocks/ETFs simultaneously, all in the same general sector, could've made things even worse had the sector crashed on some bad news. Also, waiting around while a daytrade sits is almost always a bad situation, especially after a 5% or 10% gain. Law of averages catches up. So does human nature. The next trade(s) I make will be very quick. Need to get that psychological lift from a break-even or slightly positive trade. But I'll be content to stay out as long as this market is skittish.


Update 6:44 am (Hawaii) I mentioned earlier that I wanted EXK at 9.25, which is a Fibonacci retracement level (38.2%). EXK now at 9.28. Don't know if I'd be willing to wait that long and step in at 9.25, but it was the disciplined approach to a fast, hot stock and I didn't follow through. There's good greed and there's bad greed. Today has been all bad greed for me. 

80% of my metals list is green, and I found a way to lose today. What was odd was the way the action earlier slowed down by noon Eastern time. It was like a lake, completely calm at dawn. Then a beast flies out of the water and devours anything that moves along the shore. The metals I was following had that mid-day lull. Normally, I take note of lunch hour approaching. Not today, unfortunately. 

No comments: