Friday, May 20, 2011

PMs, crude rally

7:16 am (Hawaii) I never like waking up late, but that's the peril of not setting the clock alarm. 75% of my Metals list, which is mostly PMs and includes momo plays like LNKD and CRM, is green. Not a good time to play this since it's already afternoon on the East Coast. But further study shows I didn't have much of a shot anyway. With some exceptions, the time to get in for a quick flip on the long side was yesterday.

CRM is up 8.6% to 147.55, off its high. However, it was already trading at 146 when premarket began at 8 am Eastern. LNKD, though, went from 93 to 106 between the start of premarket and the first minute after the opening bell. It has meandered down to 99.65 since then. The slow grind downhill is inevitable. Why anybody stays in this trade right now is hard to understand. Sure, if you bought in, say, at yesterday's close, you're still up 5 bucks. But momentum is downward even though this stock is not shortable yet. The only thing going for LNKD would be some surprise news, good news, over the weekend. With just 7+ million shares trading, the gyrations will be severe. Otherwise, it's headed back to 80 or lower.

Financials are slipping, so FAZ might be a play today and over the weekend. I haven't tried it in a year, maybe more. Love or hate the banksters, that's not my duty.

Spot Silver got crushed down to 34.30 or so early in the day, but bounced immediately and is at 35.16, virtually unchanged since late last night (Hawaii time). Spot Gold made major move from 1490 to 1517 (9 am to 1 pm Eastern time), after Hong Kong's new gold futures pit closed, after London closed shop. That explains why so many gold plays are green instead of red.

ZSL was actually up a buck to 20.60 before the metals turnaround. Time to check in with Brother Turd and SGS to see what's going on with PMs. Crude Oil also made a huge move up from lows at the same time as PMs. Today has been anything but droll so far.

Update 7:33 am (Hawaii) Turd Ferguson notes that today is options expiry for equities/etfs/etns. He also notes that a Fed exit from the bond market (end of QE2/no QE3) would incur the rise of interest rates. It's a fact that President Obama is heavily invested in treasuries, as any conservative investor is, and it seems more and more likely that the market could and would bottom sometime from early June to late July. There wouldn't be a QE3 until the global economy begs for it, the equivalent of being drowned in a toilet by henchmen.

Turd Ferguson: The presses will run (May 20 2011)

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