Monday, June 28, 2010

Mumbles Monday

Dow Jones 10.138.52 -5.29 -0.05%
NASDAQ 2,220.65 -2.83 -0.13%
S&P 500 1,074.57 -2.19 -0.20%

It was an almost perfect correlation, parallel, whatever ... I crashed out at 3 am Hawaii time. Market opened at 3:30. I got up at 9:15 am, 45 minutes before the close. Two months ago, I was up most nights and stayed up through the session. Now, I just enough a great night's rest. Humidity and heat, I can deal with. Rather have 80 degrees and wake up where I am than anywhere else in the world. I don't need to imagine the price and value of that.

As for the market, it's a pile of crap, which is not unusual for this time of year. This week, with Q2 ending on Wednesday, could've been a crazed buying spree by fund managers for window dressing purposes. Instead, it seems even the robots have left the office, packed up the robot wife and robot kids and headed to vacation nirvana.

AAPL gained 0.60% to 268.30, off its high on news that 1.7 million iPhone 4s sold over the weekend. That's not including the units that would've been sold if Apple had more in stock. AAPL is trading at the same level now — with all the news about iPads and the new iPhone — that it did on the blockbuster earnings report just 3 months ago. 265-270 was the old high. Now it's the old low.

I want shares at 260 or lower. Won't happen now unless the global market collapses, and that's a real possibility.

BIDU dropped 2.18% to 74.44 and GOOG lost 0.18% to 472.08.

FXI lost 0.53% to 40.96 as metals melted down. FCX slipped 2.87% (64.66) and US Steel (X) dropped 3.91% to 41.55. My guess: fund managers took their recent profits, locked them in for Q2 and got ready for vacation.

Recent high flyer PKX gave back 2.3% and fell to 101.13. Not a good start to the week for steelers.

FXE declined 0.90% to 122.33 while UUP (US Dollar) gained 0.52% to 24.96. That's a combo that usually spells losses in the US stock market.

GS (136.69 -2.15%) pulled back while C (4.00 +1.52%) gained. Banco Santander was flat (11.01 -0.36%). IRE dropped 2.16% to 3.62. For entertainment purposes, NBG lost 0.89% to 2.23. It's awfully hard to feel bullish about a bank in a nation like Greece, where people feel entitled to work 2.2 hours a week and retire from "toxic" jobs like hairdressing at the hearty age of 23 years old. (I kid and exaggerate.)

Maybe when NBG shares dip below 1.50 I'll grab a few.

USO (US Oil Fund ETF) lost 1.26% to 35.21 while SCO (UltraShort Crude Oil) gained 2.42% (14.19).

A decline in oil gave the natural gas sector reason to resume selling. Just three of my Nat Gas 40 gained today, including CLNE. As a group, they lost 2.08% today. Since Obama's clean-energy speech four weeks ago, the 40 are up only 2.63% now. Former leader WPRT is up 12.32%, but that's a far cry from its 30% gain just two weeks ago.

No catalyst in sight for this industry.

Solar was relatively flat. First Solar (FSLR) was down 0.03% to 119.23. Trina Solar (TSL), a hot mover last week, lost 0.82% and fell to 18.18.

PetroChina (114.46 -0.56%) and CNOOC (176.64 +0.80%) are interesting in this sense: it is CNOOC (CEO) that has been active because it's in acquisitive mode. Opportunism, i.e. grabbing any piece of BP it can get, has gained the sector's attention.

Solar play Yingli Green Energy lost 1.97% (10.47).

GLD (121.09 -1.36%) and TLT (99.98 +0.94) went in opposite directions today. TLT (20-year Treasury Bonds) has based here (95-100) since mid-May. Longer the base, bigger the pop. Or drop.

SLV (18.38 -1.55%) gave back some of its recent gains.

VXX collected 1.66% to 28.18. The big move came at 10 am Eastern, and it sold off on news from Capitol Hill regarding the possible failure of the financial reform bill. But VXX still finished with a gain. Bulls on pins and needles. 

FAZ gained 2.85% to 15.23. Holding these two overnight is hazardous.

I've been 100% cash for a few weeks and I'm content to admire the fluidity and success of geniuses of Le Fly and StockGuy22. 

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