Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Sweet spot Tuesday? (updated 330 am HST)

2:40 am (Hawaii) I try not to be an emotionalist, though I am particularly opportunistic of general market sentiment and "hyperemotion." Gauging this market, premarket, that is, it seems that the world wants to go higher while ignoring the visible shades of austerity out of Europe. Gold and silver are finally catching up to the uptrend, and DGP reached 56.20 in premarket before pulling back on profit-taking.

There's no negative flavor so far in the 40 minutes since premarket opened, but I sold my handful of DGP at 55.00 to lock in a modest profit. I've found often times that selling a gap up did me better — or would have done me better — than holding it through the inevitable profit-taking. There are usually many chances to re-enter, sometimes before the opening bell, sometimes after it.

DGP couldn't sustain above 55 and make a move back to 56, so I got out. It's now hovering at 54.75, still up 5.2% this morning. The action in AGQ was a tell for me. After reaching 133.53, it leveled out for several minutes at 130, then 129 and 128. Once it got to 127, I knew it couldn't do much more. There's too much uncertainty even with the shred of hope that's prevailing so far from bulls. AGQ doesn't have enough buyers, especially while up 12-13%, so it sold more and is now at 124.75 (+10%).

But if the market doesn't lean too much lower (bearish), sentiment today still seems rather emotional, hopeful, bullish. In other words, it might be hard to lose as long as I don't fight the direction. I'll try and make a little more fiat along the way. It's all about generating enough revenue to stack more metal/savings. Simple reality.

Update 3:04 am FAZ dipping lower to 57.78 in premarket as the opening bell nears. 55, 50 and lower are on my radar. It's not just Greece. There is no way out for everyone in Euroland, and Germany can't escape the leeches. Anything sub-50 is a steal in FAZ.

AGQ 127.45 and DGP 54.81. Looks like a possible push higher after the opening bell, met by lack of buyers and a trend lower. In that scenario, a buy before the open would work. But that would be screwed if the market sells off immediately after the opening bell, wouldn't it?

Think it might just be simpler and more efficient to wait for a FAZ pullback to 55 or 50.

Update 3:27 am A look at FAZ and FAS just before the opening bell.

FAZ (daily) - Forming a new pennant? Violated already?

FAS (daily) has a lot of overhead room, stuck between worlds

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