Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Recess time? (updated 730 am HST)

2:52 am (Hawaii) Dow Jones futures were well into the 100+ range when I went grocery shopping a couple of hours ago. Now? 36 points. That's not much. I don't know or really care how that works, the whole business of futures in the "pre-premarket" where peons (like me) can't trade. But if I had been at home at 2:00 am when the peon premarket opened, I might have sold my little handful of FAZ at 59.12 just to get out. But I wasn't home. I was in the store, grabbing everything that I didn't plan to buy, but all necessities. (No candy bars.) I did get some potato chips. But the rest are all needed since I rarely shop and I needed everything from a wash rag to detergent.

But to the point — FAZ has ranged between 59.10 and 60 and with no catalyst in either direction so far, I'm better off waiting just a bit. I won't wait forever, though. One thing I've learned about quick trades is that it's usually better to get out at break-even or a small loss rather than let the tide push you all over the ocean, leaving you vulnerable and susceptible to a surprise tsunami.

Update 3:05 am My Regular watch list is 42% green, 37% red, 21% neutral. Oddly heavy on the neutrals. Could be a light volume day ahead. Govt stats/numbers were released about an hour ago, CNBC reported. Slightly lower than expected. Not a catalyst at all.

FAZ hovering at 59.67. AGQ down 4.3% to 115.94. DGP flat at 54.50. That's down 1 cent. Amazon about to reveal a new tablet within the hour. Not exciting.

My Metals list is 43% green, 45% red, 12% neutral. AGQ leads the losers. REE is up 4.2%. I don't trust anything about the rare earths sector. Too much yo-yo manipulation and politics.

For the first time in awhile, there's a possibility that PMs and FAZ might go up together. Not expecting it, but it could happen on a day like today.

Update 3:25 am FAZ still sitting below 60 and more than half my Debt Spiral (Banksters) list is green in premarket. However, about half of them are fractionally up: DB +0.6%, BAC +0.4%, MS +0.3%, NBG +0.3%, GS +0.1%. The list had just two in the red an hour ago. Now there are six, including FAZ, C, AIG, RBS, HBC and IRE.

I'm going to sit tight on my FAZ.

Update 3:51 am FAZ made a nice move to 60.75 and I could've sold at basically break even. But the market is more bullish than bearish and FAZ dipped to the mid-59 area and I sold for a tiny loss. There will be other days and opportunities. Dow went from +60 or so to +105 since the open. Can't fight the tape!

Update 4:21 am Back in at 60.80 with a small position. Guess I should've left my earlier position alone. Dow only +15 now, FAZ up to 61.17. Catalyst?

Update 4:40 am Added more FAZ in the 61.80ish range. Dow Jones now in the red. Looking for FAZ to reach higher to the top of the current megaphone pattern range, possibly push through (at around 63). But this could reverse so quickly. No real catalyst out there today.

Update 6:13 am Right place, wrong timing. FAZ moved up to 62.44 and I thought about selling. But I was stubborn and held. FAZ then dropped below 61. I got out at around 60.50 for another small loss. Hate the losing, but I usually keep it tight and small.

My initial entry point was 60.53. Without adding any shares, A sell over 62 would've been a small profit. Had I doubled down at 59+ earlier today, a nicer profit. But I bought at 61.80, saw FAZ drop below 61, then push above 62 and that should've been the end of this trade. Gotta let go in this weird, almost flat market, as soon as I can get a decent profit rather than hold out for some big run ... it's not coming today with no catalyst whatsoever. I knew that, but didn't apply it fully to the strategy today.

Price action should taper down to almost nothing during this lunch hour on the East Coast. FAZ has ranged from 58.88 (premarket) to 60.75, down to 59.10, up to 62.44, down to 60, up to 61.30. Now at 60.95. Had I slept in, I'd be up. I bought FAZ yesterday at 60.53. I wonder if being up all night and staying up on a 12 oz of Red Bull is detrimental. I don't think so. I just executed poorly! Need to place actual stop sell points or have them mentally, automatically with me pulling the trigger on that exact price.

I don't mind selling at small losses. If my profit-loss ratio is 2:1 or 3:1 and I continue to stick with active, liquid issues that have a built-in edge (FAZ, DGP, AGQ) thanks to this dead-end fiat global bankster economy, the pile will grow. I don't need to win every trade or even half. Disciplined management on the exit side of the trade is KEY. That's one of the few things I did right with this trade.

Update 7:01 am In FAZ at 61.35, out at 60.65. Another small loss, three in a row. FAZ is up 0.86% for the day, yet I'm down 1.3% or so because I'm trying too hard. Time to pull back. There's hardly any momentum today, especially in the banksters. Of the 16 on my list, 12 are either up or down 1% or less. I have no less confidence that FAZ has a high probability of going higher over the long term. But my intraday trading needs some serious tuning.

Update 7:34 am Back in at 62.35. Really could've been so much easier. Micromanaging FAZ is not the way to go, not for me. I'm going to stick with a more medium-term view because it will move 1.50, 2.00, 2.50 in an hour or less, and the market seems to indicate that FAZ needs to go higher (+2.8% today) even with no catalyst event or news today.

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