Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Pains of labor

7:18 am (Hawaii) Slept in early and still didn't get up until 6:30 am. If I hadn't been all cash, it would've been alarm-clock-get-up-at-1:55 am time. And it would've been nuts if I'd held FAZ over the long Labor Day weekend. FAZ went from 60+ on Friday to 66+ this morning and has since dipped back below 64. That's quite a run from a recent low of 50. You had to know it would eventually start running hard to 100, even with a u-turn or two along the way to 55 or 50. The US govt lawsuit against the big banksters just put this FAZ move into warp drive.

I expected the banksters to make a tricky maneuver over the long weekend. Nothing really happened except this: the Swiss diving into the pool of piranhas and sharks with the Euro. Why are the Swiss going against all logic and sacrificing their Francs? Are they being bullied behind the scenes by Euroland?

Swiss: So what's this meeting about?
Greece: Nothing much. You're looking so healthy and young.
Swiss: Yeah. Right. So what is this about?
Germany: Come here.
Swiss: We can talk right here at the table.
Germany: No, let's get some fresh air outside.
Swiss: You're not going to smoke, are you?
Germany: Come along.

Outside on the porch...
Germany: Swissie, you do know the predicament we are in?
Swiss: We?
Germany: Cut the bullshit. I'm about to have civil unrest because of all these bankrupt neighbors. It's not like I can move to a nicer location. I'm stuck.
Swiss: Yes, this is quite a problem you have.
Germany: I'm stuck as long as I'm the only reasonably solvent player on the block.
Swiss: What about your buddy, France?
Germany: Don't fuck with me.
Swiss: Woo so moody.
Germany: I am sorry. I'm cranky these days.
Swiss: Yes, you are trapped.
Germany: Need you to toss a lifeline, my old friend.
Swiss: Me?
Germany: We're asking you nicely.
Swiss: Oh not that again.
Germany: What?
Swiss: You guys just take my kindness for weakness.
Germany: We should work together on this. If I have to deal with hooligans in my country, it would destroy us. So my natural alternative is to seek your help.
Swiss: My Francs!
Germany: We can do this nicely, or ...
Swiss: You bitch.
Germany: I know, I know. It's an ugly thing. Can you blame me?
Swiss: Shit. (long pause) Can I have one of your cigs?
Germany: Of course, my friend. Take the whole pack.

Simplified, yes. But it ain't that complicated, either. Euro goes up. Dollar follows. Markets sell down. Precious metals take a hit. But it will be temporary. Poisonous, toxic assets do not disappear overnight.

And there goes FAZ, back up to 64.32. Dare I step in here? Think I'll wait this one out.

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