Thursday, September 29, 2011

Not there, not close (updated 745 am HST)

Could've used one today

7:00 am (Hawaii) It's not necessarily the speed nor the size. Playing in this headline-risk market isn't Russian roulette. It's still about risk management. Normally, I avoid it, step to the side, get lots of sleep. This time, not so wise. Work has been busy and so has the market. Yesterday, I was up through the session, losing small again and again until the final hour. But instead of selling most or all of my position in FAZ, I was stuck. My online broker didn't automatically cancel my order for more than 20 minutes after the bell. Then I committed the sin of not selling in this Edward Scissorhands market: I had more than 2 hours to sell and didn't do it even as FAZ climbed back above 65.00 in the final minutes of afterhours trading.

I went to work after that, didn't get home until late night. Wired a little, I stayed up until 30 minutes before today's premarket. Then I finally crashed. When I should sleep through it all, I'm awake. When I need to be awake, I crash. I set my alarm, but I couldn't stay up even then. So I woke up a few minutes ago. It's no shocker that Germany voted to support another Greek bailout, and with that, the market is up. Dow Jones is +140, though from what I see the indices are off their highs.

FAZ was above 63 when premarket opened. I could've sold then a slightly below break-even. But I was sound asleep. Risk management. Sleep and lack of it is part of the big equation. It dipped below 60 but rose and is now at 61.68. Long way from 65+, but there I am with a sizable position (by my standards). How did it happen? Why didn't I sell? It's simple if I'm totally honest: greed. Lack of discipline. Arrogance? Overconfidence. Whatever. It comes down to risk management. I should've sold at 65+.

Now that's history. FAZ is back to where it was yesterday morning. It's still trading in its range. Down almost 6%, but leveled off. It's stunning to see AAPL down slightly while the market is up. Nasdaq is the exception, down fractionally. The algo machines could've taken this a lot higher. I'll probably lighten up on this losing position even though logic dictates that it will go higher over time.

Metals are doing better today. AGQ dipped to 99 yesterday but is at 110+ now. DGP is up to 52.33. Still not touching either. No paper gold or silver trading for weeks. This morning would've been the right time for a quick trade.

At mid-61, I'm down roughly $2.65/share on FAZ. That's around -2.65 from my cost basis, not yesterday's price at 65+. At mid-61, is FAZ a buy or sell here? The answers are different depending on a trader's time frame. Long term, it's a buy. Near term, I'm surprised after today's German parliament vote that it isn't at 55 or 50.

Update 7:42 am I step outside for a few minutes and what happens? The Dow is down to +66, the Nas is down 1.3% and FAZ is back above 63. Contagion. Euro disarray is one thing, but is China all of a sudden the pulldown factor that was sitting in the shadows through all this? China still has billions of consumers, so I'm not buying any propaganda. Slowdown, yes. Euroconomy dives, China manufacturing slows down. But there's more to it in the US market. Hedge funds are taking knockout punches to the groin, liquidating out of necessity.

It's very interesting and educational to see what Le Fly has to say all the time, but never more so than these past few days. He spells it it out without discretion. There is no frosting on the cake. That's why mainstream info can only go so far. They'd never publish with the candor of Le Fly.

Update 8:04 am I am almost numb to my position in FAZ, just freaking amazed at the fall in the indices. I happen to read this through the translation of FAZanese. FAZ went from 61.50ish to 64.07 in 16 minutes. Then came a 50% (or so) retrace of that gain to 62.88, where the sharks jumped in an devoured the carcass once again. It's on a hyperbolic rise above 64 now. Dow is +25, Nas is -47 (-1.9%) and S&P is holding it all off somewhat, -3.9 (-0.3%). Le Fly maintains that S&P 500 is going to 1,000. It's currently 1,147.

Yep I'm glad to be nearly back at break-even on this trade. Going higher in FAZ is not a surprise. It's the speed that is breathtaking. I'm not going to add or subtract from my position yet.

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