Thursday, October 25, 2007

Lessons for an undisciplined trader

This recent foray of mine, to do some swing/momentum trading, is turning into a pain in the ass. As the cliche goes, you're only as good as your last trade. For me, that would be a major El Stinko!

Perhaps I was far too confident. Not cocky, but overly confident, so much so that the notion of a stop-loss order was hard to comprehend, let alone execute. It had been awhile since I'd picked a loser, but my methodology has applied to long-term holds in my favorite (A grade stocks). By delving into more stocks during earnings season, there's a lot less substance involved. Cases in point :

• China Digital TV wasn't an earnings play, but an IPO that captivated me. I entered this stock on Day 1 and Day 2 at 29 and 32. It promptly ran to 55 within a week, and I even got a few more share at 51 along the way. Inevitably, the stock sank once momentum ran dry. Instead of selling at 7% (or whatever number) from the top, I held all the way down to 39. I sold half of my shares yesterday, thinking I was wiser as a result. The result: With an average cost of 35, this was a mediocre win.

• VMware seemed as good a pick as any for such a young stock. Love the growth rates, the niche, the history being born out of EMC. As close to a lock as there is going into earnings. Result: My buy at 97 is profitable. VMW traded at 113 today. A clear win so far.

• Feeling good about my recent buys, I opted to enter Longtop Financial, but I was way too late. Because of work, I missed the final hour of LFT's amazing run at the end of Day 1. I got home to find that LFT was no longer at 25, 26 or even 27. The stock was at 32 and climbing in after hours. Instead of leaving it alone as I normally would with any runaway stock, I chased and bought at 33.70. Bad move. Today, the stock ran up in pre-market to 36, but sold off after the opening bell down to 28. I should have just sold at 34 and broke even at worst. Now I'm holding the bag. A freaking bagholder. The only silver lining out of this is that it's not a big position. I feel foolish nonetheless. Result: Down 10%, a definite loss so far.

• As if LFT wasn't bad enough, I also bought a few shares of Baidu at 337. A lock for blowout earnings, I felt. Here, as with China Digital TV, VMware and Longtop Financial, I was not buying based on the technicals of the chart. (If I had, with BIDU well above its moving averages, I would have stayed out.) So, Baidu announced OK earnings today, and the stock immediately plunges $20 in after-hours trading. It will be worse tomorrow. Baidu will eventually come back to 337, maybe tomorrow afternoon. Maybe next week. Maybe in December. Whatever the case, it's dead money for now and I am done doing the yo-yo thing with earnings.

• And then theres lululemon athletica, which has plunged from 60 to 51 in mere days. 60 was not sustainable, not without real news since the Co guided the street higher for Q3 earnings last week. It was just a couple of months ago when the stock was mired in the 30s. I entered this stock with a trade in mind, though I was (and still am) impressed with the company's potential. However, the rapid run-up should've had me on red alert. At 60, I should've established a stop-loss sell order for half of my position.

I'm not altogether mad about the slipapge in LULU. At 51, it is now below its 10-day SMA and EMA, and if I were out of this stock, I'd be real close to buying in here.

But more and more, I'm starting to think of everything outside my A+ and A stock picks as trade bait and only trade bait. I'm not 100% there yet, but the day is coming. I may have to embrace the volatility rather than rebuke it.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

I saw that one coming out of LULU and BIDU. They are just too new for me. I can't predict what they are going to do.

Look what would have happened if you bought MSFT! I'm up 17.8% on MSFT from last week. I'm with MSFT for the long run. I'm hoping that it goes down so I can still get it cheep.

Tom R. said...

I'm in LULU and VMW as well. VMW is a long haul stock, not trade bait. LULU may be trade bait, but I still see it running for at least the next year.
I can't even begin to fathom the Chinese stocks. It reminds me of real estate in 05. Everyone knew it was a bubble, but noone could predict when it was going to end. That was just as it was topping. I had almost exactly the same discussion about China last night.... it was eery.

Numerius said...

What do you think of CROX?
I believe CROX is likely to report next week and i will hold it long through earnings.

I think we will see CROX at $120-$180 in the first half of next year. Depends on what kind of numbers they are capable of puting up. If they clear .83 or higher then its going to be crazy. I think it could happen as they said in one of those investor conferences that they are pushing to make the inventory turns harder then they ever have before. Some of that i believe was due to unreal demand for the higher priced Mammoths which will also negate expected severe (according to analyst numbers) seasonallity going into Q4. Also they were continuing to sell the summer line right up until the end of September. There will also be some gross margin benefit due to currency exchange as the dollar was very weak in Q3 and they can now say that the majority of their business is international and that will continue to expand. (China, India, Brazil, etc still unstarted or in very early stages)
Domestic growth has been written off for dead and yet they are still seeing 100% growth here.

Earnings day could be a transformational event as the general feeling on CROX continues to be that it is a Heely's waiting to happen. I think this is way off base. Whats material here is still the incredible growth potential of the original shoe internationally and even domestically. The "beach/caymen" has already been written off for dead by wallstreet. Rediculous.

pupule paul said...

> > > Kevin said...
Look what would have happened if you bought MSFT! I'm up 17.8% on MSFT from last week. I'm with MSFT for the long run. I'm hoping that it goes down so I can still get it cheep. < < <

Kevin, the MSFT trade has to be one of the best no-brainers of the quarter if not the year. I have to confess, though, that as I scanned my favorite stocks, MSFT popped in my brain. Then I dismissed it. Why? I am (or was) stubbornly convinced that MSFT will never change. But I could not be more wrong!

Halo 3 is for real, period. I need to think less in the past and far more in the present. Live in the moment, like an animal. Maybe a dog. Shark. Yeah sharks are cool.

pupule paul said...

> > > Tom R. said...
I'm in LULU and VMW as well. VMW is a long haul stock, not trade bait. LULU may be trade bait, but I still see it running for at least the next year.
I can't even begin to fathom the Chinese stocks. It reminds me of real estate in 05. Everyone knew it was a bubble, but noone could predict when it was going to end. That was just as it was topping. I had almost exactly the same discussion about China last night.... it was eery. < < <

Tom, the same close-minded mentality I had about MSFT applied to VMW. It should not have taken me all this time to sit down and read about what VMware is, what its niche and history are. Its amazing growth and potential. Had I done some thinking outside of my box, I would've got VMW back in the 50s instead of 97.

I think I'm getting smarter, but the truth is I have a lot of undisciplined traits to filter out and be a good investor AND trader.

pupule paul said...

Tom, one of the points I've read and heard about China's bubble is that unlike the one back in the late '90s/2000. China's economy is real and companies are making profits unlike the dot-com crazies. That was insane back then, young guys getting hundreds of millions of dollars from VCs for having a nice concept.

Even after China's bubble bursts, the economy will flush out the sewage and bounce back better and more stable. We just don't know when. Maybe late 2008?

pupule paul said...

> > > Christmasfern said...
Earnings day could be a transformational event as the general feeling on CROX continues to be that it is a Heely's waiting to happen. I think this is way off base. Whats material here is still the incredible growth potential of the original shoe internationally and even domestically. The "beach/caymen" has already been written off for dead by wallstreet. Rediculous. < < <

I hope Crocs doesn't announce for awhile more. CROX used to be my biggest position, but now it's fourth, way, way underweight for my taste. How it dipped all the way to 60 earlier in the week is amazing. I wish I'd had the wherewithal to scoop up more shares then.

Even today, it was around 65 or so and I decided to wait it out, maybe get more shares next week. But it closed strong, near 70 ... and I'm wondering if I missed my last chance to get CROX at 65 or below. It really moves like one of Nicolas Darvas' "box" stocks.

Both CROX and Nintendo move in boxes. Volatile, but boxed. Nintendo got up to 77 yesterday. Sudden, explosive moves sandwiched by long periods of frost ;)

Most men who invest hate Crocs and can't visualize what a new line (men's or women's) could look like. If that means they short CROX because of their small-minded perspective, so be it. I know we're visual, more than women, but getting past that is always a challenge for most of us.

I hope LULU can sustain its growth, even accelerate it past a year, but until they can get a superior distribution system going (please team up with CROX) ... I don't know how long it can grow. I do like the execution and the culture of the Co. But they need highly efficient distribution, and the sooner the better.