Monday, October 8, 2007

TV on steroids

Added more China Digital TV at 32.49. A bit pricey, but I was cautious in premarket and at the open, when it was in the 29s, then I fell asleep here on the couch. (Cut me some slack, it was 3:45 a.m. Hawaii time and I hadn't slept yet.) So I got up and STV was trading at 32 or so. I waited for it to pull back as it did on Friday, but nope.

This is a trade in my mind. With just a 12-million share (ADR) float, the volatility will be worse than Montezuma's Revenge. Am I dating myself? I'm thinking Knotts Berry Farm; you maybe thinking traveler's diarrhea. Same difference. STV is actually more like Mad Mouse, that crickety silver tinbox roller coaster at the local Hawaii fairs, rolling along on a homemade (my imagination says so) set of wood-and-nail tracks. Those 90-degree turns were slow and nasty, like you were falling off the edge of the world.

Today's volume is at 4.1 million shares so far, much less than the debut volume of 16.7 million. However, take away Friday's huge 30 minutes at the open, and the run-up at the close, and volume was actually quite light that day. Today's action has more volume, more consistent, too.

China Digital TV has a lot going for it, but there are still enough questions that haven't been answered to make this a big question mark. Going public was the best thing for the Co; now they can do all the conversions and R&D necessary to stay ahead of the curve. Hopefully.