Thursday, July 14, 2011

McConnell's maneuver

9:07 am (Hawaii) I awoke in mid-session to find the indices mixed and metals generally up, but noticed that XG had given back yesterday's huge gains. I was at roughly break-even with my small position. DGP, AGQ, off their highs, but still green.

I awoke later to find XG down 12% from yesterday's closing price, down 2 bucks or so, while the rest of my Metals list was half up and half down. It didn't make any sense. After some checking, the decline was about secondary shares, 2.5 million, announced not yesterday, but TWO DAYS ago. How did I miss that? Kind of crazy. How did XG rise the past two days despite the secondary?

Bottom line is a trader or investor is supposed to know what he/she is buying. No excuses. I bought at 14.25. I could've put a stop-loss in at 14.50 or 14.25 or 14.00. But I never saw that coming. The secondary price is at 10.50; will XG fall that far? I hate to think it, but it's a possibility. I don't think it drops that low, but 12 is possible, and so is 11. In fact, if PMs weren't so bullish this week, XG probably would be there right now.

In the long run, I think XG returns above 14 and 15 and beyond. The old traders' saying is, Sell early or don't sell at all. It sure isn't early now. I didn't protect myself, and that stings more than he current $570 paper loss (after being up about $500).

But I digress. A Congressman named McConnell, a conservative, has offered up a measure that would give Obama the power to override any dissent and raise the debt ceiling.

It's also interesting that McConnell says if Obama isn't given this power, voters might blame the Republicans for allowing the economy to get worse.

Politics. I can't say I'm any smarter than them. I didn't protect my trade at all, and I've got a decision to make. Sell the losing position, or sell half, or hold through.

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