Tuesday, July 26, 2011

They're taking turns flippin' the bird

9:20 am (Hawaii) So the White House formally flips another middle finger toward the GOP, and the GOP will do likewise within a few minutes or hours. Whatever. Fucking kabuki theater. On the other hand, I had a chance to re-enter AGQ at 223.39 as it began to rise on the news and CNBC stuffing the airwaves with this "breaking news." I decided not to enter the buy order and AGQ is now at 224.35. An agreement of sorts will come sooner or later. I prognosticated that it will come as soon as Wednesday and as late as Monday. But I doubt they go all the way to the deadline (Tuesday) on this. When it happens, silver and gold plays pull back, no question.

Interesting to see that the US Mint increased the price of its half-oz First Spouse gold coins from $929 to $954. I was shocked and a little pissed to see this. The premium had already been substantial. I passed on my plan to pick up a coin or two recently in hopes that the premium would be reduced as spot gold price declined. But with the price rising, the mint followed in accord. The next coin in the America The Beautiful series goes on sale Thursday: Mt. Hood. This year, the 5-oz coins have been going for $279. I won't be surprised when the price gets jacked up to $299 or something like that.

The American Silver Eagle proof is still "only" $59.95. I may pounce on that if I want to spoil myself again rather than pay up for the First Spouse coins. The key for the mint, imho, is that they limit the mintage on these issues, so they can do whatever they like. And there's nothing quite like owning a govt-issued coin for authenticity, even though I doubt I'll ever sell my proofs and I doubt I'd ever sell a First Spouse if I owned one. These aren't just bullion. They're fun to have and pass on to the next generation.

AAPL has stayed well above 400 in the 403 area today despite a flat market. BIDU has hung on to its huge gains from yesterday's earnings report. 66% of my Metals list is green, but only a small group has a gain of at least 1.5% today. The leaders have been rare earths (REE +8.1%, MCP +6.9%, AVL +7.2%) and palladium (PALL +3.3%).

GPL (-2.8%), ZSL (-2.6%), AG (-1.1%) among the bottom dwellers. Most are fractionally up or down.

My Regular watch list is 62% green, 37% red. US Steel (X) is down 8.7%, GNK down 6.8% and NFLX down 5.1%. CSTR down 4.2%. WFT (+9.5%), OWW (+8%), MCP, BIDU (+5.2%) and CHGS (+4.7%) lead the list.

It's interesting that AAPL keeps marching higher despite the shenanigans on Capitol Hill. What happens when the two sides come to an agreement? Will AAPL explode again? My guess is that the run is somewhat done for now and AAPL will yield to small and mid caps for that run. In other words, AAPL is a hold. A buy here would be low risk. Maybe it runs. That might be worth the buy.

BIDU? At 164+, it's down from its high of 167 yesterday after the earnings report was released. It's one of those stocks I should never have sold, knowing how Big Brother hates to share with those Westerners (Google). Think the last time I traded BIDU, it was around 70 after the split a year or two ago. Knowing it's a no-brainer and actually holding a position are two different things.

You could put 1 and 1 together and ride AAPL's growth in China along side BIDU's growth as China's de facto search engine. Life would be fairly simple that way. Maybe I do that, keep stacking physical metal, XG, DGP and perhaps AGQ and/or EXK, and forget about it for a few years. I'll definitely wait for the politicians to get that agreement done before stacking more metal. I want those discount prices.

(Some discounts may come if the CME mafia strikes tonight or early tomorrow before the open, per warning from Brother Turd Ferguson.)

Even if this turns into a plan of action, I still want a lot of dry powder. Will there be a market crash this year? I wouldn't bet against it. I want to be ready with at least 1/3 in metal, 1/3 in cash. If my timing is right, I'll empty out of all paper (stocks) and get more metal before a crash. I don't assume I'll time that correctly, though. Best to be as prepared as possible and it might be good enough.

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