Monday, July 18, 2011

Who lurks in the dark?

10:51 am (Hawaii) Easily the best single-day paper gain this year, +4%, thanks to XG, AGQ and DGP. Yet, I'm still roughly 50% cash, still anticipating the kneecap job by the CME mafia. Hitting and pushing slightly above 40.00 is one thing; if Spot Silver starts surging to 50 like a vine gone wild, margin hikes will probably follow. Again.

It's not fear as much as pragmatic preparation. If a hike comes, I'll grab a few shares of ZSL and ride it out. Long term, the tide is on silver's side. Global demand versus current supply. The gap keeps widening. But if you don't respect those who make the rules, you'll be S.O.L.

I slept through most of the session. Indices finished down. 71% of my Metals list is green, all gold and silver entities. Copper, rare earths and bear PM etfs were red.

Only 37% of my Regular watch list is green. FAZ up 4.4% to 49.90, but off its high above 50. Yes, I still regret selling at 43.03, but I'm not chasing here. TVIX (+6.1%) and TZA (+4.1%) did well today. So did SINA (+3.6%).

So did my tiny position in GSVC, up 3.5% to 19.57. I got in late Friday at 18.75. Is it time to get more shares? A third day in a row of gains. It hasn't truly pulled back since that second spike on July 8. I love the concept (mirror of 1990s flameout CMGI, as Le Fly noted) and tiny float (3.34 million shares). Today's volume was higher, but that 20 level is a big one psychologically for traders. I might regret not adding a few more shares to make these gains significant, but my gut says wait.

Another mini-dilemma is physical. As PM prices rise, I lose those lower levels that I once bought my metals at. I bought my share, but I could've bought more. I hesitate to buy more physical at 40+. I just do. It's the cheapskate in me. At 40 last time, I wanted 35. At 35, I wanted 32. At 32, I got scared and anticipated 29. Even 26. Even last night, while silver was trading overseas higher, it was still below 40 and I almost bought a chunk just to be "safe" and dollar-cost average into more physical. Didn't do it.

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