Tuesday, August 9, 2011

All in all

The Golden Rule:
Eventually, he who has the gold makes the rules

11:09 am (Hawaii) All in all, my teeny amount of sedentary physical gold did far better today than my active thumbs and fingers in trading. Something to be said there. I tried to outguess the market, the algo machines, and lost on the GSVC trade. Is S&P 500 heading back to 1,333? If it is, GSVC is going back up to 19 and beyond. Even with the ridiculously wide spreads. (Btw, GSVC is now at the original pullback area 15.55) I was hoping for on the move last month to near 20. Lesson is clear: let price come back to your level of conviction instead of chasing!)

But that's the big question, is it not? Are we just going to whipsaw in this range until Jackson Hole on the 26th? Or is this just a dead cat boingboing?

I'm gray area about this, so a small position in AAPL is on deck. BIDU.

Update 11:18 am (Hawaii) Doug Kass on Fast Money says the lows for the year are in. Maybe he and a lot of people really believe this is a repeat of last year. Maybe he knows QE3 is coming. For sure.

"We're now as oversold as we were when Germany invaded France (in WWII)."

If the market rallies from here to New Year's in rip-em-a-new-one fashion, it begins here. Or rather, it began two hours ago — one hour after the FOMC's statement. If the market tanks, I don't want to be 100% long and stubborn.

Which of these possibilities happens first?

• AAPL from 370 to 400
• GSVC from 15 to 20
• Spot gold from 1750 to 1650
• Spot silver from 38 to 35
• FAS from 15.50 to 20
• FAZ from 60 to 40
• FAZ from 60 to 100
• S&P 500 from 1172 to 1333
• Dow Jones from 11239 to 14000
• Nasdaq 2482 to 2700
• AGQ from 188 to 382 vs ZSL from 14.66 to 24
• DGP from 61 to 80 vs. DZZ from 4.90 to 7.25

And finally ... spot gold from 1725 to 2000.

To boot, how about this:

• US credit downgraded by another major rating agency
• US Dollar from 74 to 70
• US Dollar from 74 to 78
• Euro (vs USD) from 1.43 to 1.50
• Euro (vs USD) from 1.43 to 1.35
• Geitner resigns before Labor Day vs. Geitner survives to the end of Obama's term
• Bernanke installs official QE3 by Jackson Hole vs unofficial stimulus after Jackson Hole

No comments: