Friday, August 19, 2011

Game plan

3:24 am (Hawaii) 229 and 69. If I'm going to pick up some AGQ, it won't be unless or until it bends to 229. Currently at 237+ premarket. I'm not adding DGP without a pullback to 69. I have to draw lines and stick to them, otherwise the momentum shifts can easily persuade me to chase these desirables right off a cliff. Or into a dead-end wall.

30 minutes ago, I was 90% asleep. Now I'm awake. All the more reason to be cautious. I hate those days when I would've been better off sleeping than trading. Very skeptical about a bearish open. I do expect the Fed to make some kind of move between now and the end of the weekend. Kass could be right; there might be an emergency meeting today. Maybe nothing public will come of it. But I hate putting on a trade under that kind of weather.

DGP at 70.18, AGQ 237, FAZ 69.35. Possibilities. No FAZ unless it dips to 67.50. I want price control regardless of my projection of 100.

Update 3:39 am DGP (69.62) pulled back some, but not enough. FAZ has fallen off its horse, now at 67.21. AGQ holding strong at 233.98.

This possibility that the Fed is having an emergency meeting appears to be having an effect on FAZ, though my Debt Spiral list is still 82% red. Dow has rallied from 100+ points down at the opening bell to just -39. Could be a +400-point day for the Dow in the works. There's no why. It just seems quite possible in a market that makes little sense in the near term.

Update 3:43 am Kass did call for a 10-15% move in the financials in the next two or three weeks, and a double for some of them within a year. He's spooky right much of the time. Just like that, three banks are green now. Maybe FAS is the play, up to 12.48 now.


Update 8:02 am Been awake for the past hour or so. Before I fell asleep, AGQ dipped to 228, but being silly, I didn't scale in. AGQ is now at 237.50. DGP dipped below 69, but I passed on adding more, thinking that gold is going to top out near term. DGP is sitting at 69.19, needing a breather. Looks exhausted.

FAZ dropped fast. Long red candlesticks on the 1-min chart and I stayed the heck away. Fell to 63.00 but has rallied to 67.16. No filling the gap from yesterday whatsoever.

So ... I should've grabbed some AGQ at the target I was seeking. I was disciplined on the high side, but not so much on the low side. Final 2 hours are here.

Update 9:05 am In FAZ at 69.00, out at 68.74, basically break-even. No buying strength left. FAZ is up 4.5%, no gas in the tank, selloff probably on the way. With the indices down 1.2%, I just played momentum. May re-enter. There's a lack of buying strength in the banksters. This could still go either way.

FAZ just went above 69.00 again.

No comments: