Thursday, August 18, 2011

Measure of manhood?

6:36 am (Hawaii) Really? I refuse to go "all in" on my firm belief (and understanding) that our economy is in dire straits ... and I miss out on the opportunity to go full tilt in DGP, FAZ, QQQ, etc ... Is this a lack of faith? A lack of conviction?

A lack of MANHOOD?

I hate to put it that way, but I must. Why else would I still be 33% cash at a time when I say repeatedly that FAZ is going to 100? I have more physical now, but I won't back it up or double/triple/quadruple that up with more DGP (up 2.8% to 67.15). I don't even have any AGQ, which has touched 218.

DJ -391 (11,015), Nas -106 (2,404), S&P 500 -47 (1,146). My Regular watch list is 21% green, 79% red, and most of those greens are bear plays.

Watching the occasional throwback video like Peter Schiff on Fox or CNBC in 2008 or 2007 being blasted by permabulls ... it provides some dark humor and clear perspective in comparison to similar segments now. Most hedge funders are protecting themselves in this environment, but are more than happy to say on air that they're going buybuybuy on the next dip. They're probably right. There's probably more roller coaster action ahead. They're also like Gartman, constantly in and out of gold — and completely dismissing silver.

It's an advantage in one way to be a retail, peon trader. Guys like us don't think about the minutae. We don't have people to answer to aside from our spouses or whomever. We see the big picture without being apron-tied to sectors or specialties. We sit here in our shorts (or underwear) and manage for our needs, not clients or bosses. We forge unions, so to speak, with other independent minds and seek information that the puppetmasters prefer to bury.

Metals list is 44% green, 56% red. Only a couple handfuls are at least 1.5% up. I do have bank and oil ETFs/ETNs in that mix just for convenience, and FAZ is still up 13%, though nearly $2 off its high of 67.00. Thinly-traded FSG (gold) is up 11% and SCO (crude oil bear) is up 9.6%. TWM (Russell bear) is up 9.6% and QID is up 8.4%.

GPL +4.6%, NGD +3.2%, UGL +3.1%, DGP +2.9% ... miners are doing fairly well so far. My favorites, EXK (-1.5%) and XG (-1.8%) not doing so hot. Haven't touched miners in a couple of weeks, no plans to re-enter.

No comments: