6:59 am (Hawaii) Up at 6 am or so, no alarm as usual. Not ideal, but this is life in the middle of the Pacific. I'm all cash so there was no imperative, no catalyst to anticipate. Howevuh ...
Gold and silver are up just slightly. So are the indices. Volume is quite low. Traders are out of the market, or at best just dipping their toes in. Does it make sense to chase DGP here (62.77), up 0.8%, making a run in the past several minutes? There's some fear with the heads of Germany and
Staying nimble and light on my feet here. I agree with the bears, but this is not the time to go dancing with them, not with the ice still thin. Maybe QE3 is already underway. But maybe the market has already factored that in. Maybe the effect of QE3 is not going to be euphoria and a parabolic, bullish rise. Maybe the effect will be mixed and the market goes flat ... then declines.
Debt is the new four-letter word. When the bulls are dancing on that thin ice, maybe that's when it's time to ride the bears.
Update 8:02 am (Hawaii) DGP now 63.33, up 1.7%. Looking for an entry point, but the higher it goes, the more uncomfortable it gets. FAS also higher, 15.14 (+7.6%). Can bank stocks and gold go up in tandem? Maybe just today.
Update 10:35 am (Hawaii) Started a new position in DGP at 63.52 before the bell. No sense nitpicking over a few pennies; it's at 63.47 after hours. Volume was weak across the board today, so this is a scale-in move that I'm willing to ride or down 50 cents or more. I sold this last week at 63.25 when the environment (post-margin hike) seemed unhealthy. Things are better at this point, but never perfect.
FAS is 15.27 after hours. Market is up in the 2% range (DJ +1.9%, Nas +1.9%, S&P +2.2%), but again, on light volume. If and when the meeting between France and Germany tomorrow goes well, bankster stocks will surge. If it goes poorly, elephants break through the ice and the market tanks. Catalysts are crazy, but the are unavoidable.