Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Eruption indeed

10:04 am (Hawaii) All things considered, I would've been better off ignoring the market today. Why? 1) I tried to play FAZ, was up a bit (bought at 74.75 and it ran to 81+), then down after I bought more at 81. I got out at 74 even with a small loss. 2) I ran out of patience with GSVC and sold at 13.10 12.10 when the post-FOMC effect appeared to take a serious downturn. Of course, within minutes, GSVC was above 14, then 15 and is at 15.85 at the close. That stings, too. Had I left it alone, better off. Or, if I'd added just a few shares at 13, I'd be feeling better about today.

The market zigged and zagged madly after the FOMC news, then roared from break even to huge gains.

Dow Jones +429.92 (+4%)
Nasdaq +124.83 (+5.3%)
S&P 500 +53.07 (+4.7%)

Enormous. I figured any bullish sentiment or support from the FOMC would spark a rally, but I didn't expect a so-so statement to trigger this. No way.

Before the closing bell, I almost opened a small position in AAPL at 369, but passed. It went to 374+ by the close, now 372.85 after hours. Just wasn't my day.

On the plus side, DGP and gold held some gains despite a serious selloff before the close. DGP is at 61.34 after hours, off its high of 64.38. XG also close at its high of the day (11.70). XG was up 7.3% for the day.

It's tempting to jump on the bull and ride to new highs ... but how much of today is simply a snapback rally? A dead-cat bounce? Even at these huge numbers, it's still a pittance compared to the total selloff of the past two weeks.

All the short-term stuff is history at this point. I'm still long physical gold and silver. I'm still long DGP and XG. If the market has reason to stay bullish, AAPL is interesting. But until the QE3 question is answered, it's tough to commit to one direction or the other.

No surprise, gold will sell off on a market rally. The rally won't last forever; the fundamentals remain. Therefore, gold will be at a discount in the coming days. Or hours. Nothing stays the same for more than a few minutes in this environment.

Update 10:24 am (Hawaii) Extreme moves? FAZ was at 66 when I last looked before the closing bell. Now at 60.66 after hours. Glad I got out at 74, but I'll be much gladder (my word) when it bottoms and more reckoning days come for the banksters. FAZ was at 44 just two weeks ago. I'll be waiting.

Update 12:47 pm (Hawaii) Just realizing now that I sold GSVC not at 13.10, but 12.10. That just feels even better! I just feel perplexed that I was fine holding it through all these downturns, down to 17, 15, 14, 13, even 12 yesterday. But, I lost all confidence in this stock. And the MMs knew I was one of the lemmings who would jump off the cliff if they could just push price down low enough. Again, as much as I like the future of this stock, I would've served myself far better by just locking it away and not paying any attention. I just thought for sure that I'd get it cheaper, maybe at 10 or 11.

Sucks. I still plan to own a small slice of GSVC before it explodes eventually. Yes, I believe Facebook will go public with great velocity one day soon.

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