Monday, October 10, 2011

Emptying out, frugal shopping time (updated 1100 am HST)

2:51 am (Hawaii) Out of FAZ for another loss. These small losses are adding up and I hate the bleeding. I am looking for a move in FAS today on top of the over-weekend gain; Dow futures are up 140. AAPL (+2.5%), AGQ (+7%), DGP (+3.5%) are among the big movers. Staying out today and this week is a real possibility, but it might be better to be a pilot fish.

Update 3:32 am Trend is higher, bad news appears to be priced in for now. Got back in FAS before the opening bell at 11.09. Everything turns quickly, exercising caution.

Update 3:42 am Out of FAS 11.33. It was either put a stop sell order in at 11.30 and go to the toilet, or sell and crap in peace. Honestly. I like peace. Might get back in later, but FAS was due for a decline after hitting 11.40 a couple of minutes ago (stochastics). Made $240 on the quick trade, still down a little for the day because of the over-the-weekend trade on FAZ.

Update 3:57 am FAZ at 58.30 after dipping below 58.00. FAS got down to 11.24, then pushed back up to 11.40 again. Now selling down to 11.30. I'd like to see FAZ at 55 or 50, as usual, but I've got no idea how far it sells off today. It could get down to 55, then rally back to 63 before the closing bell. That would not be really surprising.

Update 10:54 am Boy I was tired. I slept from 4 am to 8 am, went to do some work and just got home. In between, I saw the market up HUGE and FAS at 11.90+ (I think). This was before the closing bell. I don't like trying to put a quick trade on if I can't be situated, so I stayed back. The Dow finished +330 (+2.97%). Nas up bigger +86 (+3.5%) and S&P 500 +39 (+3.4%). But as I check charts, I see FAS had its lowest 1-day volume since Sept 30. SPY had its lowest volume since Sept 20. AAPL (+5.4% to 389+) had its lowest volume since Sept 28.

There's only two ways I look at a big up day on such paltry volume:

1. This could be nothing but cheap calories, nothing nutritional and substantive. It's thin ice and the market will crater tomorrow, or

2. This is the beginning of another melt up rip, similar to last year when the indices kept trickling higher on no good news, just govt mandated machinery doing their trickeration and pushing stocks to new highs.

I'm not for or against making money under these circumstances. So yes, I wish I'd let my FAS position this morning run (with a trailing stop order in place). But FAS up 14.3% because Europe says it has a plan to save the banks? Details? WHAT DETAILS? Who needs them, right?

My main concern is staying out of harm's way. I'm all cash. I have no desire to fight the trend. Right now it's up no matter how much I despise the banksters. Much as I've liked trading AGQ and DGP in the past, +6.8% and +5.1% pale compared to FAS's move today.

As for FAZ, it's near its low of the day at 54.85. The 55 mark has been breached. The lower trendline on my megaphone pattern has been hit. Do I buy? Possibly. But 50 would be even better.

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