Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Bank run starting on BOA (aka DOA)? (updated 730 am HST)

2:38 am (Hawaii) Up through the night, got some work to get done, some fun stuff to get done and a can of Red Bull is in my system. Might need more... got the Orville Redenbacher popcorn and some mochi crunch and fukikake. This movie is a daily marathon and it's just starting for the day. Interesting to see both SPY and FAZ both up for a good 25 minutes or so after premarket opened (peon trading time, not the pre-premarket). But now FAZ is up and SPY is down. Dow futures were up, but on balance not pointing to a positive open.

Hard to read whether the late-day bounce yesterday is going to hold. But FAZ has already pushed above 68, sold off to 67.65 or so, and is back to 68.00 again. I'm leery of head fakes here. A lot of red on my Modified Trade X list: AAPL, AGQ, DZZ, ERY, FAS, QQQ, TLT, TVIX, UUP. The green: DGP, FAZ, FXP, TMV, TZA, YANG, ZSL. My focus, as usual, is FAZ.

YANG and FXP I learned about last night. They're 3x and 2x bear play ETFs on China.

Update 4:33 am Just doing some stuff, watching but not participating. Dow has bounced over and under break-even several times. FAZ was somewhat tradable from 66+ to 69+, back down to 66+ and now around 68.00. Market is basically flat with some fluctuation. Will 66+ hold again? If not, I might get those FAZ shares I covet at 65 or 60 or even 55.

FAZ intraday: little boxes getting work early in the day

I mentioned yesterday that the daily chart showed one trend over the past few months: long white/green candlesticks that are followed by long/longer black/red candlesticks have led to a temporary downtrend in the last eight instances. Doesn't guarantee anything here, but that fact does temper any enthusiasm I may have to jump in at this level without any catalyst on the horizon.

Update 4:47 am A fairly typical pennant forming on the early-session intraday chart for FAZ. I'm guessing this is common with opening-hour traders cooling off. The pennant normally leads to a break up or down, and in this case, FAZ just spurted higher, above 68.00 (not on chart).

FAZ 1-minute: Might just hit the sack.
No rhyme or reason to today's price action.

Update 6:05 am It's mid-day in the market and FAZ continues to stay in this pocket between 67 and 68+. Currently 68.39 (+2.6%) even though the indices are slightly up. My Debt Spiral list of banksters is 35% green, 59% red. The Euro banks are green and US banks are red, though none are down more than 3%, which is a pittance these days. 

PMs are also pushing up as of the last few minutes. AGQ is at 107 (+1.3%) and DGP is at 52.91 (+1.3%), and it still feels oddly interesting that PMs and FAZ are up together, like a nearly-forgotten memory. 

I drew up some megaphone patterns on the FAZ intraday chart for entertainment purposes, but the price seems to be holding in these areas. Stepping toward 69 since I took this pic of the intraday. 

FAZ 1-minute: Is 67.00 long gone already? 

Update 6:24 am Fascinating price action by FAZ as the Dow sold off from +36 to +13. FAZ left the lower megaphone to the next level and pierced yet another area before returning to a 69.15-69.30 point. It looks comfortable here. I could've entered at 67, 68, even 69. 

FAZ 1-minute: Holding in the megaphone patterns is extremely bullish
but highly susceptible to an avalanche

Update 6:42 am The entertainment value is immense watching FAZ. I didn't expect it to shoot up higher and higher on the megaphone patterns in such a short time, but this is FAZ and it's a spaz. It's pulled back down to 70.00 since I took this last photo (below) as the Dow tiptoes above and below break-even. Quite a run in the past hour plus. I'd be fine holding this had I entered at 67 and 68. Right now, it's a dodgy proposition. A small entry position would suffice in case the market buckles and FAZ returns to 79 or 81. Tight stops absolutely recommended.

FAZ 1-minute: Getting to these higher megaphones surprised me,
but it could actually get above the highest before today is over. 
And then return to yesterday's closing price. 
Of course!

7:07 am Down goes FAZ! That was quick, as usual. Stairway up, elevator down, as usual. FAZ broke through the megaphone patters up and then down, and then some. Got down to 68.10 or so, looking similar to the avalanche from yesterday's final hour. Dow is +38, AGQ is up 3.7% to 109+. DGP is up 3.2% to 53.92. FAZ is still up 2.5% for the day at 68.32. The run for today may be done. Not touching anything yet, though AAPL (374+) is well off its low of the day (360+). 

FAZ 1-minute: A rerun of the final hour yesterday. So now what? 

Update 7:25 am I wanted 65, I might get it. But I also want 60, 55...

Easy come, easy go
Little high, little low

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