Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Discipline & Floppity (updated 1040 am HST)

7:14 am (Hawaii) Been in an out, trying to stick with my little boxes. Got up about an hour ago to see FAZ had spurted higher this morning to 81, matching its recent high. Then sold off back to just below 75.

I've been toying at that level. In at 76.00, out at 75.60. In at 75.00, out at 75.10. In at 76.00. In hindsight, it seems ludicrous to yo-yo with entries and exits. With more time, it's more likely that FAZ will hold at this level as a new floor. But I'm still cautious.

Update 7:40 am Has FAZ and the anti-bankster momentum petered out? Maybe. I added a few more shares at 77.00. Maybe BAC gets another bailout, but its less likely after this debit-card fee was announced yesterday. They pissed the president off. Again.

Update 8:52 am Heading into the final hour. Expecting some head fakes at the top of the hour for maybe 1 to 10 minutes. FAZ at 78.12, might add a few more at 78.00. Dow is -181 and falling again.

FAZ 1-minute w/ little boxes

Update 9:10 am Missed at 78.00, added at 79.00. Feeling a little bloated here, but the earlier strength this morning remains. Selling is met with buying, sustained. Dow -207 now.

Update 9:22 am Boo. FAZ got up to 79.79, then a major dumpage (hedge fund unloading big lots) brought it below 79 instantly. I got out at 78.50 and FAZ is now at 77.55. The profit-taking had to happen at some point. Interesting moves. Like yesterday, the top-of-the-hour action actually happened 5-10 minutes before the final hour started. And this unloading is happening quite early compared to recent days. Up that much over a few days, it's bound to happen. If I'd had a stop in place, maybe I get more than 78.50. Because I bought more at 79.00, I lost a chunk of my paper profit, but still ahead on the trade, profit of $1.33/share.

Nothing close to holding it from 55 to 81, but I'll take it.

Update 9:38 am Avalanche in FAZ as (I'm guessing) hedge funds unloaded at 79.79. I was lucky to get out when I did with a manual stop. FAZ just touched 75.20. This falloff was due. Can I get shares at 65 or 55 or 50? Dow is -73.

FAZ 1-minute: 75 still proving to be a floor, at least for today

Update 9:43 am FAZ going red dead to 74 as the Dow is nearly back to even for the day. AAPL went from 365 to 368 in a few minutes. Hmmm... this bounce is purely technical, but bouncing it is.

Update 9:54 am Was distracted for the past 10 minutes and away from the computer, and there goes FAZ down for the count. Down to 71, now 70. So much for 75 holding. This could fall all the way to 65, 55 ... but nothing in Europe has changed. Maybe Geithner announces something later today. Plunging, 69 ... AAPL to 371. More bounce.

Update 10:01 am Opened a position in AAPL 372+. Love this company and products but this is a quick trade. It traded well below its current range earlier today, down to 354, but major bounce. Bernanke's chatter boosted the Euro, hit the US Dollar and spiked the rally. FAZ went from the top of my Debt Spiral list to the very bottom, down 10.9% for the day, crazy crazy action. Can't trade FAZ without micromanaging it or having stop orders in.

AAPL daily: If Bernanke's chatter holds,
AAPL can rally back to 383 and beyond. If...

An amazing intraday rally in AAPL (and the indices)

Update 10:38 am Out of AAPL 371.75. Teeny loss. Looks like the run is done, purely a quick trade. Can't marry any stock in this environment.

FAZ at the close

Update 10:43 am
A more recent look at the FAZalanche (above). A little perky after hours (below), but no sustainable move either way. 81 to 66 in one session. Can't say I'm surprised, but it's still a hell of a visual. Might get my 55 tomorrow. Nothing wrong with a little hope.

Quiet time after hours for FAZ

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