Monday, October 31, 2011


FAZ daily
A break from the downtrend?

FAZ daily
If this is a true break higher, doesn't mean FAZ streaks back to 81.
Until the next catalyst - did MF Global's bad news today really
hurt banksters? - 36 to 42 looks probable.

FAS daily
Consolidation is coming to finnies. Already here, in some ways.
Betting against the banksters is hard but until the biggest cheaters
absorb all of the MF Globals of the world, FAS will swing wildly.

FAS daily
The intraday volatility can be traded by few. A buy at the
lower trendline and a sell at the higher level has proven
profitable for some traders. Don't look at me. I sold at 11.33.

9:45 am (Hawaii) Took a nice time off to get a breather from the market, enjoy other aspects of life and feeling fine. Got up around 7:00 am Hawaii time, watered my garden, kept track occasionally on the market. Dow was down around 140 then. Now -230 going into the close. FAZ had hit a high of 38+, dropped to 37+, but is now near its HOD at 39.30. I'm all cash and have been for a few days. In and out, not holding anything overnight.

MF Global declared bankruptcy, due primarily to sovereign debt. They're going to survive one way or another, almost guaranteed to be bought out by one of the big whale banksters for pennies on the dollar. My take is MF Global takes the pain now for an easier landing later while other banks and financials stall out the process and eat dirt later. Better to purge now but these guys don't want to deal with it.

FAS is down near its lows of the day at 14.85 and could start retracing its recent climb to 15+. Will FAS drop back to 12 and 9? Who knows? FAZ was attractive at 35+ but I would not pull the trigger then. Unfortunately. Europe is Europe and will remain staunchly divided on bailouts and details for a long time. It's a tangled mess with too many voices and not enough action. Real action. Not posturing and politics. The US is in a worse mess but there are fewer voices and it's a little easier to read, obviously.

Volume in FAZ was solid today, but not so much to persuade me that we have a crash week in store. My guess is FAZ fluctuates between 36 and 42 for awhile. Any break above 44-45 would be spooky for the banksters, who are running out of provisions, barriers and ammo against the Grim Reaper storming the castle gate. Eventually FAZ returns to 81, then hits 100. Just don't know when.

No comments: