Sunday, July 22, 2007

'07 picks: Seth Klarman

Value shoppers are, well, off the beaten path. But they're out there, no question.

Seth Klarman is a value investor with The Baupost Group, and at the start of 2007, he endorsed a wagon full of stocks — 21 in all. Three of them, AQR, CDS and MLS, have no ticker today. Of the remaining 18, 12 are up for the year. Here's what Klaman recommended.

APOL > Then: $47.20. Now: $63.58. Change: +34.7%.
CORE > Then: $31.83. Now: $34.18. Change: +7.4%.
ELOS > Then: $25.15. Now: $24.65. Change: -2%.
GAV > Then: $5.61. Now: $5.76. Change: +2.6%.
HD > Then: $41.18. Now: $39.39. Change: -4.3%.
HLS > Then: $25.14. Now: $18.41. Change: -26.7%.
HRZ > Then: $31.10. Now: $35.54. Change: +14.3%.
INSP > Then: $22.96. Now: $23.11. Change: +0.6%.
MAQ > Then: $7.54. Now: $7.95. Change: +5.4%.
MGAM > Then: $10.61. Now: $11.46. Change: +8%.
NAO > Then: $7.50. Now: $7.76. Change: +3.4%.
NFG > Then: $42.09. Now: $46.00. Change: +9.3%.
NWS > Then: $24.81. Now: $24.45. Change: -1.4%.
OMN > Then: $6.67. Now: $6.07. Change: -9%.
QNTA > Then: $2.12. Now: $2.73. Change: +28.7%.
SEA > Then: $9.98. Now: $13.37. Change: +34%.
SHA > Then: $8.04. Now: $7.85. Change: -2.3%.
WIRE > Then: $26.81. Now: $29.79. Change: +11.1%.

Overall, on a weighted scale, Klarman's value picks are up 5.4%. The big winners are Apollo Group (APOL), Star Maritime Acquisition (SEA) and Quanta Capital (QNTA). Healthsouth (HLS) is a clear strikeout. What I found a little surprising is that six of the stocks don't even have a P/E. Is this value with risk? Possibly, but the key word is value, and Klaman sees it in these 18 picks.

Time will tell how they pan out.

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