Crocs just fine going sideways — for now

Every day, on message boards, in face-to-face conversations, by cellphone, CROX longs are mulling the future.

After four down days in a row, some of them are annoyed. Shocked, even. The question is, why? CROX is a stock that has lived through 30-percent pullbacks in the past year, and yet has run from $11 to $45.99 in that time. And people are upset?

Sure, when the stock ran above $49 last week, a lot of longs were salivating and visualizing an AAPL type of blastoff to $125. To infinity and beyond. The volatility hasn't bothered me, though. The more I study fundamentals of any stock, the more I worry less about the day-to-day fluctuations.

Earnings won't be out until August 2, and I expected no sustainable run for the stock until the week before, starting with Monday, July 23. Anything beforehand is just a washing machine chugging away, making a lot of noise, but going nowhere.

In fact, it's not the roller coaster that grabs my attention. It's the insider sales by execs, and even at that, I can live with it all. This is what execs do, or hope to do. Quadruple the stock in one year. Cash in. Increase earnings and revenues, expand globally, produce globally. Boost the stock again and again. Maybe split the stock one or two more times.

In the case of Crocs, where non-footwear industry types are in charge, the mode is progressive. Some key BOD members hail from Flextronics, a massive corporation that ran from $11 to $40 from 1998 to 2000. It's no surprise that leadership at Crocs has a similar approach — grow through acquisition. A multitude of buyouts.

The flip side to growth on steroids is the aftermath. FLEX hasn't touched $40 in years, and isn't even close now. If the same happens with Crocs, I won't be surprised. But first there will be much more growth and many more acquisitions. If CROX follows the FLEX pattern, the top will be here in by late 2008 or early 2009. There will be time to ride the tsunami and get off, if desired.

Until then, I just don't get very excited about the day to day. Maybe it's the effect of my sage green Caymans. Feet happy. Me happy.

Disclaimer: Pupule Paul is a bit long CROX.