Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Strange as it ever was

If the markets were one person, full of constant pushes and pulls, how neurotic and quirky would he be?

One of the things I enjoy doing is watching the price action on my favorite stocks. It can be addicting, watching the momentum turn in the blink of an eye. Nothing to do with company fundamentals. Just the mood of the markets near and far based on just about anything.

That's why it's sometimes best for me to sleep through the market, as if I have a choice most times. In Hawaii, it's 3:30 a.m. when the opening bell sounds in NYC. The markets are the mad genius of an uncle that you like, but don't talk with a whole lot. He does most of the talking, and you just nod your head and stay focused on the stuff he says that actually makes sense.

This morning, the Nasdaq and Dow Jones have given up huge portions of their gains. The Nas even dropped into the red while GOOG, RIMM, BIDU and AAPL simultaneously went from nice gains to negative territory. While Google and RIMM are around break-even, BIDU traded as low as $205 and AAPL sank to $135. Both stocks are rebounding off those morning lows. Amazon has struggled through the session and is trrading at $80. The stock was as low as $78 earlier.

First Solar, which announces earnings after the bell, had an amazing $10 run in the final two hours yesterday. Today, FSLR has given back a chunk of those gains and traded as low as $113, a $7 drop.

There are a handful of stocks that have held their ground.

• CEO has kept its 3% gain and is locked at $120. I wrote the other day that this moves like a tech stock. That's not quite accurate. This oil and gas Co has moved up with great strength and momentum, which would be like a CROX or GRMN. But there's little volatility in CEO, which trades at a paltry 11 times earnings. A wise man would take this opportunity. I'm not there yet.

• Another stock that's standing its ground is the aforementioned GRMN, which reports earnings after tomorrow's close. After trading sideways for a couple of weeks, the stock broke out yesterday and has resumed its climb today. Garmin got up to $88.44 before retreating to $87, a gain of 2.2%. The growing cache of products makes GRMN an intriguing tech play even as the stock has been on an incredible rise.

• CROX is holding strong at $59, with an early-day high of $59.95. The Co destroyed earnings expectations last week, and the short interest of 32% is finally kicking in today and possibly will continue into tomorrow. The Co's presence at the World Shoe Association trade show in Las Vegas probably doesn't hurt either.

• China's leading portal, SINA, is up again. Sina is trading at $43.82, not far off its high, for a gain of 3.4%.

• One of the top gainers of the day is recent IPO lululemon athletica (LULU), which is defying basic convention. LULU is up 9.3% to $32.78 in its third day of trading. The stock was as high as $34.17 earlier. Daytraders are getting the most out of this stock, which opened at $18 on Friday. Investors have been wary to enter at these pricey levels, but I think the stock won't fall too dramatically because of the Co's strong appeal to yoga enthusiasts, i.e. female shoppers.

• Yingli Green Energy is up for a third day in a row. Today's move of 2.3% to $18.59 bodes well for the small solar company from China.

• Skins Inc. is on the move thanks to buzz at the WSA trade show. SKNN.OB is up 7.8% to $2.22, near its high for the day.

• Under Armor continues to mesmerize investors and watchers alike. The Co blew out earnings expectations before the bell and traded as high as $64.26 this morning. Profit-taking hasn't stopped the stock, probably because short interest is 50%. UA is trading at $63.65.

Pupule Paul is long BIDU, AAPL, CROX and SINA.

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