Friday, July 27, 2007

Apple in unchartered waters

Where does Apple go from here?

Particularly in a testy market, what to do as an AAPL long? Let's take a look back at other scenarios when AAPL followed a considerable down day with a huge upside performance.

Feb. 26, AAPL closes at $88.51
Feb. 27, AAPL closes at $83.93
Feb. 28, AAPL rallies a bit to $84.61.
By March 26, AAPL hits a high of $95.85.

Apr. 26, AAPL rides a bullish earnings report and gains more than $3 to $98.84 on 62 million shares.
May 7, after six more sessions of consolidation, AAPL then launches into a run.
June 7, the run peaks with an intra-day high of $127.61.

The stock then levels out for the rest of June. Boosted by the release of the iPhone, AAPL starts its next leg up
July 3, the stock vaults nearly $6 to $127.17.
July 23, AAPL hits a new high at $145.22 intra-day.
July 24, shares plunge to $134.89 on negative iPhone subscription news from AT&T. The info is based on just two days of data.

July 26, a new leg up kicks off as Apple routs all earnings expectations. The stock closes at $146.

All the staring at charts and stock price is really an exercise in futility. An AAPL long can buy, hold and sleep well. Or, he/she can be nervous with every earnings report, though it's a bit difficult to imagine how or why.

A number of new targets put AAPL at $205 to $225 by year's end. When iPhone numbers come out in the Q3 report, the statmongers will get a much clearer idea of what the stock will do. Until then, AAPL is likely in for another temporary consolidation period. With growing Mac sales, it'll be a different kind of lull for longs and shorts alike.

Disclaimer: Pupule Paul is a teeny bit long AAPL.

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