Saturday, July 28, 2007

Is it time to scoop up your favorite stocks?

Was this February 27 all over again?

Thursday and Friday's selloffs had that gloomy feeling for investors in indexes and blue chips on the Dow Jones. For tech stocks, however, many longs were giddy.

If the two-day selloff proves to be a healthy capitulation, Monday could be buy-in time for some of my favorite stocks.

CNOOC
This has been a great stock in the past two months, a gas and oil company that thrives in the shadow of its big brother, PetroChina. CNOOC (CEO on the NYSE) traded in a range of 80-92 from August to June, but soared to $124 by July 17. A minor pullback to $112 since then came with the territory. This stock trades at 11 times earnings. Cheap? I think so.

In addition, a new contract with Guandong province (that's Southeast China's hot province) is a first for the province and a sign of more revenue to come. Only one-third of the total shares outstanding are publicly traded (145 million), while margins are insanely attractive.

Profit margin is 34%, operating margin 48%, return on equity 34%. Even CNOOC's gross margin of 64% trumps PetroChina (60%).

China's 11.9% year-over-year growth for Q2 is a highly bullish sign, and CNOOC is in position to benefit the growth and investors alike. This is a B+ pick that I've never pulled the trigger on, but boy, is it tempting.

[Ed's note, Sunday, July 29: Reuters reported on Friday that Warren Buffett has sold nearly 17 million shares of PetroChina. How this affects CNOOC, we shall soon see.]

Apple
High P/E. Yes. Nobody in his or her right mind would argue that a P/E of 45 is low.

Priced to perfection? Sure. Despite blowout numbers, AAPL ($143) is nearly 4% off its high based on no news in the past two days. The stock is prone to profit taking and volatility, but there's also no arguing with mammoth revenues and fierce growth.

No corporation has mastered the art of marketing, cost control and distribution better than Apple. Is it a buy here? Let me put it this way: If your long-lost billionaire uncle gave you free shares of AAPL, would you turn him away? Of course not. If he came to you with a plan to give you AAPL shares at a 4% discount, would you accept?

Apple longs would, cash reserves not withstanding. One item clearly worth noting is the iPhone's security flaw. That issue will be pushed hard at the Black Hat 2007 conference next week in Las Vegas. In other words, Apple has one week to get this problem fixed before the gang of hackers gets its claws on the product.

Amazon
Georges Yared, the Yoda of the bull market, insists that big houses are going to march into this stock en masse in the coming weeks. I can't doubt him. He's been right, accurate and precise.

AMZN at today's $84 price may seem pricey compared to Tuesday's $69 bargain. The Q2 earnings report changed everything. Again. Two down days since the run to $88 on Wednesday may have given believers a chance to buy another winning ticket.

And if Yoda is right, you best move quickly.

Baidu
A Chinese search engine with 100 times less revenue than Google. How will BIDU win in China? One, Robin Liu is a seasoned veteran of the search engine wars, going back to his start at Infoseek. Two, the Chinese government is clearly protectionist when it comes to homegrown corporations that have great potential. That includes Baidu.

The stock is down from its lofty post-earnings high ($219) and closed down 2% to $204 yesterday. A miniscule float (19 million shares) makes this rocket another tempting buy.

Rick Aristotle Munarriz is the only Motley Fool writer I have consistently agreed with. Check out his piece on Baidu's prospects.

Crocs
Yes, CROX. Considering that the stock is up only 11% from its pre-Q2 earnings report is staggering. Shares have come down nearly 7% from their mid-day high of $59.

With the Co guiding expectations higher and growth continuing to shoot through the roof, this is another stock that is on the verge of increased institutional buying. Or so it seems.

I've entered the stock at $40 and $50, and another entry at $55 is highly reasonable. Short interest is 32%, giving longs two proper reasons to expect another climb to new heights.

Nintendo
The run to $61 has been fueled by pure, blissful numbers. Where NTDOY.PK will finally stop, nobody knows. The way the stock has run since November, this breather off the earnings numbers is normal. However, trying to time an entry point is tough. There is no sign of bad news for the Co as long as the Wii sells like crazy.

The stock pulled back significantly today in Tokyo, but only $1 on the U.S. pink sheets. Tough call short term, but long term, $61 or $63 won't matter a ton. This is going up, up, up.

Electronic Arts is sorry it missed the boat, but who can blame them? A couple of years ago, most gamers viewed the PS3 and Xbox as the wave of the future, and so did EA, which developed only two games for the Wii at the start.

My goodness, imagine how much Wii revenues will expand as every gaming company, including EA, jumps on the bandwagon.

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