Monday, August 1, 2011

Waiting in vain?

11:20 am (Hawaii) Gartman says gold has become the "third currency," which is clearly true. He owns gold again after getting out a week ago, in Euros, and is back to being bullish. I remember when he closed his position, he said it was too "crowded" of a trade. It kept running without him.

My position in XG is up 1.2% today to 12.99, but DGP and most gold plays sold off fractionally. DGP is down 0.7% to 53.88. My small position in ZSL fared well today, opening at 13.90, selling off significantly, then running back up to 13.89 (currently afterhours). Spot silver dropped to just above 39.00 early one, then charged back up. It was a day on the pendulum for the market today as the debt ceiling issue was "resolved."

Congress is about to vote on the new bill. If it passes, nothing fundamentally changes. The debt will still grow enormously each year. Still up shit creek. The bill will just keep these kabuki actors on the stage for another year-plus until the next election.

What's interesting about today, beyond the action in precious metals, is how the market sold off so quickly after rising on news of probable passage of this bill. Scott Blier called it right, writing last week that the market would sell on the news.

I still plan to hold my small positions in XG, DGP and GSVC (down 1.1% to 16.00). GSVC actually fell below my original "like" price of 15.55 earlier today. (I never bought at 15.55 and instead chased it above 19, bought more at 17+ and 16.00 last week.) ZSL is a very tough decision. I'm up nicely today, but the position is so small that the profit is minimal. In addition, I have it as a psuedo hedge on a selloff. What's weird is that though the market failed to hold early gains on the debt ceiling news, silver failed to bounce.

Spot silver now at 39.24. Spot gold at 1620.

Maybe the market gets a jolt after the vote. I doubt it, though. There was a solid volume today. People who pulled out last week aren't showing conviction in much if they've re-entered the market today. Silver hasn't collapsed by any means. I though it would be possible for silver to fall to 35, even 32, before bouncing and running this year to a new high. But it's holding 39 well. My plan to buy more physical metal on a severe pullback today or tomorrow is not materializing.

My approach, then, is to wait this out. The fact that a miner like XG was up today after getting chopped down last week is telling. Doesn't mean miners are going up from here. In fact, a broad market selloff won't be good for miners, which have proven to move with equities rather than PMs more often than not. I won't be adding any miners. If anything, it might be more DGP, and if silver finds a bottom soon, maybe some AGQ. August to October is prime time for metals, or has been in the past. It wouldn't shock me to see AGQ rally to last spring's high near 380.

GSVC? I believe it holds ground at 15.00-15.50, the 50% retrace from its recent low (10+) to the high (near 20). If it pulls below 15, I'll look to add a little more. I'm in this for the long term, so scaling in is no problem.

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