Thursday, June 16, 2011

Cute is for babies

10:38 am (Hawaii) That's right. There's no point in tiptoe action when you're in an outdoor arena surrounded by 99 pissed-off bulls, defending yourself with one measly fencing stick and a little red blankie. This market is best handled as a spectator, far up in the rafters, sipping hot chocolate, dipping in some Spanish rolls. (That stuff is great together.)

The market is a hellish place unless you've timed your hopscotch-during-an-earthquake moves perfectly. Even Le Fly is frustrated beyond end.

I got some badly needed exercise late last night, got to bed after the opening bell and had no regrets. The market wasn't going anywhere. Did Geitner or Bernanke have a little rabbit up their sleeves? Did Greece "discover" a hidden vault filled with ancient gold and space alien rubies? It would be swell, but that shit ain't happening and it will take a long, long time to undo all this evildoing. Sure, even with QE3* down the road, things won't get fixed entirely. In fact, any rally will be temporary, whether it's two days or two weeks or two months.

Funny. Guest on Closing Bell just said the move is to "cash and canned goods under your mattress ... don't watch the news." And with that, they cut his ass off. Hilarious. His name is Richard Ross.

"Clearly, we've seen a bearish divergence, in my opinion, where crude oil prices have fallen off sharly. We now have a confirmed head-and-shoulders breakdown (in crude oil) on yesterday's move below $97. There's projected downside to $81. Lower crude prices are good for everyone; that should be a tail wind for the market and the consumer, but transports are selling off, the market is selling off. So we think that divergences suggests a slowdown in the global growth story, worries ahead, lower prices ahead.

"The buying opportunities right now are in cash and canned goods, putting them underneath your mattress, getting defensive. Clearly, we see those sectors that are leading the market: health care, energy, staples, utilities. They're working for a reason, because they're defensive. You want to stick with those sectors. It's a clear sign of a market top, and downside remains.

"The markets are going to do what they're going to do on a day-to-day basis. I implore your viewers to focus on the internal structure. There's a litany of evidence that suggests we're heading lower. Don't follow the news. Don't follow the headlines. Waiting for a headline is not an investment strategy. Due for a bounce is not a strategy. Oversold is not a strategy."

They let him talk for a pretty long time. Ross is a technician, but he's definitely persuaded by the evidence.

Before him, they had a young lady named Jennifer Fan, a rising star (CNBC says) in the hedge fund world. From Arrowhawk Capital. Easy on the eyes, for sure.

I normally don't note a lot from TV, but there's not much to say about this anemic market. AAPL went from 326 to 318 in almost flash-crash pattern between 1:49 and 2:52 pm (Eastern). Then, right back up to 325 by the closing bell. Thin volume equals more pronounced domination by the high-frequency machines. Another reason to stay the fuck out of this gory mess.

My Regular watch list is 33% green, 67% red. TVIX is up 10.5$. OWW, one of my losers recently, was up 6.5% to 2.45. SWY (+3.4%), EDZ (+2.8%) and RLOC (+2.5%) are among the leaders. So is PSUN and MSFT. OWW and SWY were up on big volume. RLOC, not so much.

The Metals list is abysmal to no surprise: 21% green, 77% red, 2% neutral. DUST (+4.6%), ZSL (+1.5%) among the leaders. A day when the leaders, bearish or bullish, are mostly below +1.5% is just apathetic. No real conviction here either way. XG managed to push higher by almost 1%, but they were the only miner in the green.

REE, NUGT, MCP, SVM, EXK, SIL, GPL, GG, GOLD, COPX, AG, GDXJ, NGD, PSAU, GDX, EGO, PAAS, PALL, SLW were all at least 2% down. Fugly indeed.

AGQ is -1.26% (173.86). It's summer and the doldrums can make anyone queasy.

GDXJ (Junior God Mines ETF) is at a crucial level, 32.83. It has not been this low since Oct 2010 and Jan 2011. Next level of support is 30.81, and that's not on solid ground. 28.37 has firmer support. It's summer and that's what gold does.

Speaking of canned goods, here's my initial strategy: I'll get a little exercise walking the big-box stores late night and buy only what's on sale. Didn't see much on sale at Wal-Mart yesterday, but I'll keep going almost every night when there's almost zero traffic and it's not so hot (85 degrees yesterday). Stacking for a downturn is a necessity in this economic environment.

And RIMM is down 13% on disappointing numbers and guidance. How long until Microsoft swoops in?

I'm still 90% cash with a very small position in DGP (-0.2%).

The indices: Dow +64 (-0.5%), Nas -7.76 (-0.3%), S&P +2.22 (+0.2%).

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